Home furnishing: following the collective response of the central bank and other three ministries and commissions to the risk of real estate enterprises on December 3, the director of the rural economy Department of the national development and Reform Commission said on December 8 that it was necessary to promote the upgrading of rural residents’ consumption echelon, implement furniture and home decoration subsidies to the countryside, relax the margin of real estate policy and superimpose the furniture and home furnishing subsidies of the national development and Reform Commission. The valuation of the home furnishing sector was significantly repaired in this period. Considering that the central economic work conference on the 10th set the tone again, we should strengthen the expected guidance on the basis of non speculation in housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies, and the real estate policy may continue to pick up. Considering the obvious correction of the household sector due to the negative impact of real estate in the early stage, we will continue to pay attention to Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) and other leading enterprises in the follow-up.
Papermaking: in this period, the corrugated box board market stopped falling and stabilized, and the overall supply and demand was stable. Considering that the downstream began to prepare orders for new year’s day and Spring Festival, the subsequent prices may rise slightly; The white card market remains stable, but at present, the five-star production capacity of Guangxi Taiyang, Guangxi Jingui and Jiangxi has been put into operation successively, with an increase of about 2 million tons. Considering that this part of the new production capacity will be released successively in 2022, the subsequent white card price may continue to be under pressure; The cultural paper market operates smoothly and the price rises slightly. Although the rebound of pulp price helps paper enterprises to raise the price, considering that the current demand has not improved significantly, it remains to be seen whether the subsequent price increase can be fully implemented.
Packaging and printing: considering the overseas economic recovery and the promotion of plastic restriction order, the demand for paper packaging is expected to continue to pick up, while the industry leaders in the low period expand their voice through mergers and acquisitions, R & D of new products and industrial alliance, the prosperity of the packaging and printing industry is still expected to improve, and we can continue to pay attention to the consumer electronics packaging sector benefiting from the increased demand for 5g replacement.
New type of tobacco: following the decision of the State Council on Amending the regulations for the implementation of the tobacco monopoly law of the people’s Republic of China on November 26, the national standard plan for e-cigarettes and the administrative measures for e-cigarettes were solicited from the public on November 30 and December 2, respectively, and the regulatory framework for e-cigarettes was basically improved. At present, the international policy has gradually become clear. The US FDA has successively released HNB and atomized products, and China’s e-cigarette policy boots have basically been implemented. Under high standards and strict requirements, the industry has entered the stage of standardized development. The production and technical advantages of subsequent new tobacco head enterprises will be further revealed, and attention will be paid to the opportunities of smalls international and HNB industrial chain companies with technical advantages.
Market performance
In the current period (11.29-12.10), SW light industry manufacturing index closed at 2762.23, up 2.95% over the end of the previous period. The overall sector lost 1.06 percentage points to the market (Shanghai and Shenzhen 300), ranking 14th among 28 primary industries. Each sector performed household light industry > papermaking > packaging and printing.
Key company dynamics
Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) : the company issued 2021 stock option incentive plan (Draft) and employee stock ownership plan (Draft).
Risk statement
Raw material price risk; Policy uncertainty risk; Macroeconomic downside risk.
