Key investment points:
The performance of the auto sector was weak this week, with a large decline in parts. CITIC auto index fell 0.77% this week, 3.91 percentage points behind the market, ranking 27th among 30 industries. Among them, passenger cars rose 0.62%, commercial vehicles fell 1.74%, auto parts fell 1.95%, and auto sales and services rose 2.11%. In the concept sector, the new energy vehicle index fell 2.58% and the intelligent vehicle index rose 0.17%. This week, the performance of the auto sector was weak, and the decline of parts was the top. First, the short-term increase was too high. Second, the Tesla recall increased the uncertainty of the Growth Logic of auto parts.
In November, auto sales decreased by 9.0% year-on-year, and independent brands increased against the trend. In mid November, the automobile sales volume of the automobile association was 2.522 million, a year-on-year decrease of 9.0% and a month on month increase of 8.1%. Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars in November was 2.192 million, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%, higher than that of the same period in 2018-2019; The month on month growth of 9.2% was better than seasonal (the average month on month growth of 2017-2020 was 8.0%). As the “core shortage” eased, the prosperity of the automotive industry gradually improved. In November, the sales volume of independent brand passenger cars was 1022000, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, significantly better than the overall growth rate. The market share was 46.6%, a year-on-year increase of 5.2pct, and the rising trend was further clear.
In November, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 450000, a year-on-year increase of 125.0%, reaching a new high. Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars was 427000, a year-on-year increase of 180.5%. From January to November, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.99 million, a year-on-year increase of 169.6%. In terms of permeability, the monthly permeability in November was 17.8%, and the cumulative permeability from January to November was 12.7%. In terms of car enterprises, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Shangtong Wuling and Tesla ranked among the top three with sales of 90000, 44000 and 32000 respectively, with obvious advantages; Traditional car companies, such as Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , gac-e’an, Chery, Geely and SAIC passenger cars, have sold more than 10000 vehicles a month and have sufficient potential; The new forces continued to be strong. The sales of Xiaopeng automobile, Weilai automobile and ideal automobile were 13000, 11000 and 13000 respectively, with a month on month increase of 54%, 196.6% and 76.3% respectively.
Investment suggestion: reiterate the investment opportunities of auto parts. After Tesla‘s recall and scale expansion, switching some shares to point B suppliers are normal operations in the industry. The short-term market fluctuates greatly, which resonates with the negative sentiment of the market worried about callback in the early rapid rise, and does not affect the medium and long-term growth logic of domestic parts, That is, the first wave of Tesla‘s massive pull (Tesla‘s market share is expected to have more than 15 times the growth space compared with that in 2020), after the rise of independent brands, the global auto parts supply system reshapes “refueling in the air” (it is expected that the share of domestic parts will have 4-5 times the room for improvement), and continues to be optimistic about auto parts. It is suggested to pay attention to: ① Tesla industrial chain, Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ； ② Lightweight, focus on Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) ; ③ Intelligent driving industry chain, Foryou Corporation(002906) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) , sunny optical technology, Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Nextel, China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) ; ④ Other growth tracks, including Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , etc. In addition, the trend of independent rise is clear. The vehicle manufacturer suggests paying attention to Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , and the undervalued value Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) .
Risk tip: the lack of chips exceeded expectations, resulting in the industry recovery less than expected; The progress of intelligent electric is less than expected; Bulk price increases and core deficiency fermentation exceeded expectations.
