Benefiting from the rapid growth of demand for new energy thin film capacitors
Thin film capacitor has the characteristics of long service life, high withstand voltage, wide frequency response and good temperature characteristics. It can withstand back pressure, no acid pollution and can be stored for a long time. It is mainly used in rectifier, inverter, frequency converter and other converter circuits. It is widely used in new energy fields, including new energy vehicles, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , wind power, charging piles and other new power equipment. At present, the scale of China's thin film capacitor market is 10 billion yuan. With the continuous expansion of new energy demand, it is expected that China's thin film capacitor market will enter a high-speed growth period again in the next few years, In the next three years, it is expected to produce an incremental market scale of more than 20 billion yuan, and the overall market scale will increase significantly.
There will be a large gap between supply and demand for the core materials of thin film capacitors
The core material of thin film capacitor is electrical polypropylene film (Electrical PP film), electrical C films for new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and wind power are mainly concentrated between 2 and 4 microns. Compared with 6 to 8 microns for ordinary household appliances, the production capacity has been reduced by more than half at the same time, the total output has decreased significantly, and the relationship between market supply and demand has been reversed. Since 2019, the rapid development of new energy industry, especially the rapid development of new energy vehicles, has a great impact on film capacitors The demand for filters has increased significantly. Achieve product supply and demand balance by the end of 2020. In 2021, the world demand is about 120000 tons (210000 tons of 7 micron equivalent), and the capacity gap is about 23%. Since there is almost no incremental supply of electrical acrylic film in the world in 2022, it can be predicted that the supply and demand gap of electrical acrylic film will continue to expand next year.
The production capacity will increase slowly, and the price of electrical polypropylene film will continue to rise
The capacity supply of electrical polypropylene film will be limited in the next few years. At present, the main equipment of electrical acrylic membrane in the world are produced in Germany, Japan and other countries, and the construction cycle of new production capacity is 24 to 40 months. In addition, the performance requirements of new energy vehicle films are high. Only a few enterprises can stably mass produce new energy electrical acrylic films. Globally, there is almost no new production capacity in 2022. At the end of 2023, there are five new production lines known in the world. At the end of 2024, there is a known new capacity. According to the calculation that the global output of new energy vehicles will reach 16 million in 2023, 9 new production lines are required. In the next three years, electrical c-film may continue to be in short supply and usher in a high-level business cycle. The price of electrical c-film will rise by 50% this year, and it is expected that the price will still be in the upward channel next year.
Industry rating and investment strategy
With the rapid growth of industry demand and limited supply increment of the industry, electrical polypropylene film, the core material of thin film capacitor, is expected to usher in a high business cycle, and the product price continues to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the following companies.
1、 Anhui Tongfeng Electronics Company Limited(600237) 。 The company is the largest manufacturer of electrical c-film in China, with 6 production lines at present. Over the years, the company has been based on the capacitor film and film capacitor market, continuously cultivated, with prominent industry position and strong comprehensive strength, and has the advantages of integrated industrial chain, brand and scale. After the new major shareholder Tongling SASAC settled in, the company decided to invest in a number of new projects related to its main business, including the expansion of 1 million film capacitor production lines for new energy vehicles and the introduction of 2 new polypropylene film production lines for capacitors. The above projects are expected to be completed and reach production capacity in the next one to two years.
2、 Sichuan Em Technology Co.Ltd(601208) 。 The company is mainly engaged in the R & D, manufacturing and sales of new chemical materials. Based on new insulating materials, the company focuses on the development of a series of products such as optical film materials, electronic materials, environmental protection and flame retardant materials, which are widely used in power generation equipment, UHV power transmission and transformation, smart grid, new energy, rail transit, consumer electronics, flat panel display, electrical appliances, 5g communication, military industry and other fields. At present, the company has three electrical polypropylene film production lines.
3、 Zhejiang Great Southeast Co.Ltd(002263) 。 The company is mainly engaged in the R & D, production and sales of all kinds of plastic films and new materials. The company's traditional products are BOPET film and CPP film. Since 2011, the company has transformed and upgraded, improved the industrial structure, moved forward to the high-tech field of new materials, and developed and produced differentiated special membrane products. At present, the company's products cover traditional packaging film, high temperature resistant ultra-thin capacitor film and optical grade film. At present, the company has four electrical polypropylene film production lines.
Risk statement
The economic boom is down, the development of new energy is lower than expected, and the price of raw materials fluctuates greatly.
