Key changes this week:
① At the central economic work conference, it was proposed that “infrastructure investment should be carried out moderately in advance”, “cross cyclical and counter cyclical macro-control policies should be organically combined”, “new implicit debts of local governments should be resolutely curbed”, and “housing should not be speculation”, It is proposed to “promote the construction of indemnificatory housing”, “support reasonable housing demand”, “implement policies for the city” and “double carbon can not accomplish its work in one battle”. ② The central bank announced the reduction of reserve requirements. ③ The national development and Reform Commission proposed “furniture and home decoration to the countryside” to promote the upgrading of consumption echelons of rural residents. ④ The Department of industry and information technology of Henan Province issued the detailed rules for the implementation of capacity replacement in iron and steel, electrolytic aluminum and cement glass industries in Henan Province (for Trial Implementation), and the new construction procedures of photovoltaic glass are becoming stricter. ⑤ both electronic yarn and roving fell this week.
Core view:
① At the end of the year, heavy policies occurred frequently, the policy bottom of infrastructure chain and real estate chain was clear, and it will take some time for the policy to be transmitted to the fundamentals. Therefore, we believe that, on the one hand, from the perspective of expectation, the front end of the industrial chain is better than the back end, and cement, construction, waterproof and water reducing agent are the first to benefit; On the other hand, from the perspective of landing, the improvement of the financing end gives priority to promoting the completion and delivery of houses, and the demand for glass, hardware, coatings, pipes and gypsum board is expected to accelerate the recovery.
② Building materials leaders accelerate the improvement of yield of new materials, synchronously develop new production capacity of customers, and improve application penetration. For example, carbon glass composite materials of wind power blades, UTG glass (folding mobile phone application), medicinal glass, wind power grouting, photovoltaic glass, etc. it is recommended to focus on the application of new materials, the future revenue contribution is expected to increase steadily, smooth the real estate / infrastructure periodicity, and overcome the impact of limited new capacity of traditional businesses under the background of “double carbon”.
③ The recognition of TOC model continues to rise. On the one hand, the real estate boom is declining, and the two evaluation dimensions of high-quality operation and business model difference are recognized again. On the other hand, the marginal of hardbound housing is weakening, and the retail environment is relatively improved.
Subject matter of concern:
① Reverse cycle + undervalued value combination, it is recommended to pay attention to [ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ] [ Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ] [ Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ]. ② The real estate chain is optimistic about the stabilization of the valuation of consumer building materials. The core targets include [ Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ] [ Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ] [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ], and the key targets include [ Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ] [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ] [ Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) ]. ③ The performance of C-end exceeded expectations, the core focus was [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ], high-quality profits, and the concentric circle strategy accelerated. ④ The application of new materials focuses on [ Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ] (UTG), [ Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ] (wind power grouting material, etc.), [ Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) ] (medium borosilicate tube bottle making), [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ] (electronic / photovoltaic / medicinal glass), [ Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ] (Electronic / photovoltaic glass), [ Guangdong Haomei New Materials Co.Ltd(002988) ] (automotive lightweight application / systematic doors and windows). ⑤ the price of glass in the off-season exceeds the expectation, and the superposition of financing improvement ensures the completion, focusing on [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ] [Lutheran glass] [ Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ]. ⑥ Building materials export chain attention [ Cocreation Grass Co Ltd(605099) ] [ Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) ] [ China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) ].
Risk statement
Infrastructure investment is less than expected; Policy changes are less than expected; The risk of credit tightening; The risk of continued tightening of real estate regulation.
