Core view: we think 2022 is similar to 2019. ① At the macro level, economic growth is facing downward pressure, but the strict policies in the early stage have been actively adjusted, and the demand for steady growth has increased; ② In terms of currency and credit, with the support of RRR reduction and fiscal force, the growth rate of social finance picked up in the first half of 2019. We expect that the growth rate of social finance will show a trend of “high before low” in 2022, reaching a high of 10.85% in July 2022; ③ At the industry level, credit risk increased slightly, but the pressure on interest margin eased; ④ In terms of valuation, the current valuation of bank shares is slightly higher than that before the market started at the end of 2018, but they are in a reasonably low valuation state in the past five years.
Investment suggestion: at the current time point, we believe that the fine-tuning of real estate policy, combined with the wide credit start in the first half of 2022, is more similar to the monetary credit environment at the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019. For the banking sector, the opportunities outweigh the risks.
Key recommended targets: Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) .
Risk tip: the economic downturn is faster than expected, and the steady growth is less than expected
