Key investment points:
Industry trend and valuation
From November 11 to December 9, 2021, CSI 300 rose by 5.34%, SW auto sector rose by 3.03%, outperforming the market by 2.31 percentage points.
As of the closing on December 9, 2021, the TTM P / E ratio of SW automotive industry was 33 times, and the valuation premium rate relative to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 decreased to 159.55%, including 40 times for passenger cars and 29 times for parts.
Industry: sales volume continues to grow rapidly month on month, and replenishment is in progress
In November, the automobile sales volume was 2.522 million, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%, and the decline continued to narrow, with a month on month increase of 8.1%. Since September, the chip supply has continued to improve, with a month on month increase for the third consecutive month. By department, the sales volume of independent passenger cars was 1022000, with a month on month increase of 7.2% / 7.4%, which was still significantly better than the industry as a whole, with a corresponding market share of 46.6%, a month on month change of + 5.2 / - 0.8pct, and the cumulative share continued to increase to 44.1%.
At the end of November, the inventory of passenger cars was 434000, an increase of 4.83% compared with the beginning of the month. With the improvement of chip supply, the main engine factory accelerated production to supplement the normal inventory; In November, the inventory depth coefficient of auto dealers increased to 1.35 compared with the previous month, and channel replenishment is in progress.
In terms of cost, the price shock of main raw materials began to fall in October, and the cost pressure of the industry is expected to ease in the future.
New energy vehicles: record high momentum at the end of the year
In November, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 450000, with a year-on-year increase of 121.1% and a month-on-month increase of 17.3%. In terms of upstream industrial chain, the loading volume of power battery in November was 20.83gwh, a year-on-year increase of 96.20%, a month on month increase of 35.06%, and the cumulative loading volume was 128.28gwh, a year-on-year increase of 153.08%. Structurally, LFP accounted for 55.58% in November, an increase of 0.88pct compared with the previous month.
investment strategy
1) At present, the industry is expected to improve, mainly based on: on the one hand, the chip supply began to improve in mid and late September, and the sales volume of the industry continued to grow month on month in September / October / November. On the other hand, the high price shock of main raw materials has fallen since October, and the cost pressure of the industry is expected to be relieved; At the same time, on December 8, the national development and Reform Commission expressed its position to encourage conditional areas to implement a new round of automobile to the countryside. At present, under the requirements of the strategy of expanding domestic demand, automobile consumption is expected to become an important driving point. From a comprehensive analysis, we expect that on the premise that chip supply continues to improve and there is no significant impact of the epidemic, the production and sales of passenger cars are still expected to maintain a rapid growth month on month in December; Next year, under the demand replenishment and normal replenishment, the sales volume is expected to turn positive year-on-year. Combined with the low base effect this year, it is expected to achieve rapid growth throughout the year. In terms of internal structure, we believe that the brand and pattern of the passenger car sector will continue to be optimized. It is recommended to pay attention to the independent industrial chain with strong product power and resonance with the new car cycle, as well as the high-quality joint venture brand industrial chain under the logic of replenishment and recovery of subsequent industries, especially the investment opportunities of high-quality parts under the joint vibration of replenishment and export recovery, In terms of short-term recovery elasticity, we are optimistic about the mass industrial chain greatly affected by the lack of core in the early stage. Generally speaking, the recommended targets are Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) (600104), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238), Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) (000625), and the targets of high-quality parts are Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) (600741), Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co.Ltd(300258) (300258).
2) In terms of new energy vehicles, the independent and new forces of car making, Tesla, Volkswagen and other international car enterprises continue to accelerate the layout of the Chinese market, the model supply continues to be optimized, the double integral assessment is superimposed and the subsidy decline is expected next year. It is expected that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars is expected to continue to hit a new high at the end of the year, and the high outlook of the industrial chain continues. Meanwhile, the global new energy vehicle market will expand in China, Europe Sustained and rapid development led by the United States (among which, the marginal improvement of U.S. policy is expected to be strong). Therefore, along the main line of the global supply chain, we are optimistic about: ① China enters and binds international auto enterprises such as Tesla and Volkswagen and companies in the supply chain of new forces of car making, such as Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (601689), Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) (603305), Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) (002050), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (000887), Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) (600741), Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) (002126), Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) (603348); ② enterprises entering the leading supply chain of power batteries such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , ferdi battery ( Byd Company Limited(002594) ), LG Chemical and Panasonic, such as Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) (300450), Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (603659), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (002812). ③ independent automobile enterprises that are expected to continuously improve their technology and stand out in the fierce competition, such as Byd Company Limited(002594) (002594), Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) (600066).
3) In terms of smart cars, we believe that with the joint active promotion of auto enterprises, technology giants and new forces in car manufacturing, from the medium and long-term perspective, the sales and penetration of global and Chinese smart Internet connected vehicles are expected to rise rapidly. Next year, many high-end smart models in China are expected to be launched one after another, and the industry is expected to achieve a qualitative breakthrough from L2 to L3, The intelligent driving market has ushered in a period of accelerated development. It is suggested to pay attention to two main lines: 1) the target of Huawei's intelligent automobile industry chain, For example, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) (000625. SZ), Baic Bluepark New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(600733) (600733. SH), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238. SH), etc.; 2) at the perception level, the demand for cameras, millimeter wave radar, lidar and other sensors and intelligent lamps will continue to increase; at the same time, the penetration rate of intelligent cockpit / air suspension components will continue to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (002920), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) (601799), Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) （603786）、 Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) （603197）、 Foryou Corporation(002906) （002906）、 Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) （601689）。
Risk warning: policy fluctuation risk; Risk of chip shortage; The recovery of automobile production and sales was less than expected; The production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected; Price rise of raw materials and exchange rate risk; The global epidemic control of covid-19 pneumonia was less than expected.
