1. Steady growth: bank stocks in 2022 β source
Research and judgment of the general trend: under the downward pressure of the economy, the policy focus will shift to steady growth, which is the greatest certainty in 2022. According to the prediction of the Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) macro team, the GDP growth rate in the single quarter of 21q4 may decline to 4%, and the economic necessity of broadening the credit base will increase. The central economic work conference stressed that the economic work in 2022 should "take the lead in stability and seek progress in stability", and required to "actively launch policies conducive to economic stability". Infrastructure investment, real estate correction and double carbon economy are expected to drive wide credit in 2022.
Investment strategy: be optimistic about the absolute return of the banking sector in 2022, and there may be relative returns in stages. ① DDM perspective: under steady growth, the banking sector is expected to form a DDM numerator denominator resonance market. At the molecular end, under the wide credit, the bank's revenue is compensated by volume, and the bad pressure on the cost end is relieved; At the denominator end, the improvement of economic expectation leads to the improvement of risk assessment. ② Historical recovery: at present, similar to the end of 2014 and the beginning of 2019, economic pressure has increased, credit has widened and increased steadily. 14q4 banking sector rose by 60%, 15h1 continued to rise by 13%, and achieved a relative return of 32% from November to December of 2014; In 19q1, the banking sector rose 16%, with a cumulative increase of 27% in the whole year. In January 19, the relative income was 6%.
2. Cutting kinetic energy: the key to winning in the next decade
The new and old economic drivers should be switched, and the bank model and assets should also be switched. Banks with advantages in new drivers should be preferred. Key recommendation: Societe Generale / Ping An + postal savings / Nanjing / Everbright + China Merchants Bank / Ningbo.
Mode switching advantage bank. The first mock exam of commercial banks is from the single mode of deposit and loan to the integrated financial service mode. Under the new model, banks that have run out of the big wealth management (broad concept) industry: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) ; banks that are running out: Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) ; banks that are expected to run out: Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) .
Asset demand advantage bank. (1) In the medium and long term, banks with more green and inclusive layouts benefit from double carbon economy and common prosperity respectively. Representative banks include Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) and Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) . (2) In the short and medium term, the banks with the strongest momentum of asset investment in 2022 include: ① urban rural commercial banks in economically developed or high growth regions, especially those transformed into retail banks, such as Ningbo, Nanjing, Suzhou, Changshu and Sunong; ② banks with strong retail and Pratt & Whitney business and few public housing business, such as Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) .
3. Fundamentals: banking business outlook in 2022
It is estimated that the net profit will increase by 7.5% year-on-year in 2022, and the growth center will return to normal; Revenue grew by 7.9% year-on-year, showing a trend of low before and high after.
Scale: the growth center increased. It is expected that under the broad credit, the asset growth of listed banks in 2022 will be basically unchanged at 10.4% compared with that in 2021, and the overall growth center will be higher than that in 2021.
Interest margin: the interest margin was flat month on month. It is expected that the single quarter interest margin in 2022 will be flat compared with 21q4, and the annual interest margin will be slightly lower than that in 2021, which is attributed to the trend of interest margin in 2021.
Non interest: the growth rate is down month on month. It is estimated that the growth rate of non interest income will decrease 13pc to 3% in 2022. Among them: ① the growth rate of medium income rose by 2.4pc to 9.2%, benefiting from the fading of the impact of the new asset management regulations and the repair of consumption; ② The growth rate of other non interest income decreased by 34.3pc to - 5.3%, due to the market interest rate trend of the whole year, which was high before and flat after, and the disturbance of the bond market.
Provision: impairment pressure improved. It is expected that the credit cost will drop slightly by 2bp in 2022, which will still drive profits. Among them: ① pressure points: increased downward pressure on the economy, risk exposure of real estate urban investment, and partial extension of Pratt & Whitney small and micro loans; ② Improvement points: the pressure of credit impairment is expected to be flat. On the one hand, wide credit is conducive to the improvement of risk pressure, on the other hand, the quality of on balance sheet assets of banks has been consolidated; The pressure of non credit impairment is expected to improve, and the pressure of off balance sheet non-standard rectification caused by the new regulations on asset management has subsided.
4. Risk tip: macroeconomic stall, sharp outbreak of bad, real estate risk out of control.
