This week’s view:
Highlight the value of the pharmaceutical sector and grasp the layout strategy of high prosperity and low value. This week, the CSI 300 rose by 3.1%, the pharmaceutical and biological industry rose by 1.1%, ranking 12th among the 28 primary sub industries. Among the sub sectors, only biological products fell by 0.01%, and the rest rose. The pharmaceutical business increased significantly, at 4.53%. With the weakening marginal impact of Omicron strain and frequent good news of covid-19 specific drugs, the consumer sector recovered as a whole this week. The pharmaceutical sector also showed some performance, especially the obvious adjustment in the early stage, or the undervalued value at the bottom was higher than that of the consumer sector, such as medical services, chain pharmacies, traditional Chinese medicine, etc. This week, the Sino Thai pharmaceutical team released the industry depth report “upstream series depth of life sciences: demand expansion, domestic substitution, high prosperity competition in the next 5-10 years” and “one of the series reports of medical services: resumption and prospect, looking at specialties and targets through data”, and continued to be optimistic about the upstream 5-10 years competition of demand expansion and import substitution, And opportunities for adjusted medical services. We continue to maintain our view: at present, the valuation of the pharmaceutical sector has a safety margin and the layout value is prominent; In the performance vacuum period and cross year market, it is recommended to continue to layout the track with continuous upward prosperity and rapid performance growth, such as cro / cdmo, upstream of life sciences, medical services, etc; And pay attention to the repair of undervalued plates at the bottom, such as API, chain pharmacies, etc.
The first domestic covid-19 specific drug has been approved, and the research and development of covid-19 therapeutic drugs is in full swing. On December 8, 2021, it was released on the website of the State Food and drug administration, It has been approved by Tengsheng Huachuang Pharmaceutical (Tengsheng Bo pharmaceutical subsidiary) for covid-19 virus neutralizing antibody combined treatment drugs ambacizumab injection (brii-196) and romistumab injection (brii-198) registration application, which is the first approved covid-19 virus neutralizing antibody combination therapy drug with independent intellectual property rights in China. In addition, the real antiviral drug azvudine has been in phase III in the world; Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) vv116 has submitted a clinical application to nmpa; Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) Js016 and ly-cov555 double antibody cocktail therapy of Lilly have obtained EUA from 15 countries, and their safety and effectiveness have been recognized in the world; The small molecule oral drug prochloramide, which develops the pharmaceutical industry, is in the third phase of the world; Bdb-001 of Staidson(Beijing) Biopharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300204) is in global phase II / III. Domestic covid-19 therapeutic drugs have made rapid progress, which is expected to contribute to global covid-19 prevention and create huge economic value. It is recommended to pay attention to relevant development enterprises of advanced therapies and drugs, including tengshengbo drug-b, kaifa-b, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) etc; At the same time, pay attention to the cdmo industrial chain of drugs related to large global pharmaceutical enterprises, and pay attention to cdmo leading enterprises Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) .
Covid-19 vaccine was exported smoothly, and conventional varieties were gradually repaired. Omicron, a variant of covid-19, has attracted global attention. In the face of the constantly mutating covid-19 strain, we believe that preventive vaccine is still the fundamental means to control the epidemic situation. The R & D and upgrading of covid-19 vaccine and regular vaccination may become a probability event. At present, the vaccination rate of covid-19 vaccine in China has exceeded 75%, and the industry demand has shifted to overseas markets. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, the export value of Chinese vaccines for human use reached 10.5 billion yuan in October, and the cumulative export value from January to October reached 86.04 billion yuan. It is expected that the total export value of Chinese vaccines will exceed 100 billion yuan in 2021. Considering that the influenza trend of covid-19 epidemic is becoming more and more obvious, it is recommended to pay attention to covid-19 vaccine related development enterprises, including Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) – u, Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) , etc. In the long run, each vaccine head enterprise has a large amount of heavy varieties or is about to go on the market. With the increase of vaccination awareness under the covid-19 epidemic, we expect that the vaccination rate of large varieties is expected to continue to increase and gradually approach the level of developed countries. The class II vaccine industry is expected to achieve a compound growth of 20% – 30% in recent 3-5 years. It is recommended that Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) , Hualan Biological Engineering Inc(002007) Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) 。
Performance of key recommended stocks: key recommended stocks in December: Yaoming biology, Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) , Haisco Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002653) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Zhejiang Gongdong Medical Technology Co.Ltd(605369) , Jiangsu Sinopep-Allsino Biopharmaceutical Co.Ltd(688076) ; The average rise this week was 0.44%, which was 0.64% lower than that of the pharmaceutical industry.
One week market dynamics: Based on the analysis of the pharmaceutical sector from the beginning of 2021 to the present, the yield of the pharmaceutical sector is – 6.9%, the yield of CSI 300 in the same period is – 3.0%, and the yield of the pharmaceutical sector is 3.9% lower than that of CSI 300. This week, the CSI 300 rose by 3.1%, and the pharmaceutical and biological industry rose by 1.1%, ranking 11th among the 28 primary sub industries. Among the sub sectors, only biological products fell, down 0.01%, and the rest rose. The pharmaceutical business increased significantly, up 4.53%. Based on the 2021 profit forecast valuation, the current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 33.49 times PE, The P / E ratio of all A-Shares (excluding the financial sector) is about 20.89 times PE, and the premium rate of the pharmaceutical sector relative to all A-Shares (excluding the financial sector) is 60.31%. Calculated by TTM valuation method, the current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 33.8 times PE, lower than the historical average level (37.3 times PE), and the premium rate relative to all A-Shares (excluding the financial sector) is 54%.
Risk warning: the risk of policy disturbance, drug quality problems, and the risk of delayed information or untimely update of the public data used in the research report.
