This week's view:
Gb7258-2017 technical conditions for safe operation of motor vehicles stipulates in the National Standard No. 2 amendment, "Passenger cars shall be equipped with event data recording system (EDR) in accordance with gb39732; if equipped with on-board video driving recording system (DVR) in accordance with GB / t38892, it shall be deemed to meet the requirements", which shall be implemented for newly produced vehicles from January 1, 2022. Considering that the requirements of the new policy are clear and the time point of mandatory implementation is approaching (one month dimension). At present, the field of EDR front decoration has attracted great attention from the market. Several stocks represented by Qiming Information Technology Co.Ltd(002232) continue to be strong. This field is becoming a new cutting-edge branch of the driving main line of intelligent (electric) vehicles. At present, on the eve of the outbreak of intelligent (electric) vehicles, the industry chain is electronic and "software definition" The two major trends of overweight make a qualitative leap in the volume and negative complexity of vehicle data. It is imperative to add EDR to capture richer data, whether due to judicial definition factors or safety optimization factors. More importantly, the new EDR standard is conducive to regulating that each vehicle should be stored locally - because the local data of overseas manufacturers such as Tesla is relatively limited The data are all in the cloud (similar to most Tbox in China), which is not conducive to forensic analysis after the accident. In the long run, the new deal not only standardizes the local data storage of Chinese manufacturers, but also emphasizes that imported vehicles shall not store the main vehicle data abroad, and imported vehicles can be sold only if they meet the requirements of China's EDR.
From the current loading situation in China, the implementation of the new deal will bring large increment, and the current EDR penetration is still in single digits. At present, models, modelx and Model3 sold by Tesla have been equipped with EDR; Other overseas manufacturers such as Audi, Mercedes Benz, BMW, Lexus and other luxury models are also equipped with EDR; In addition, Chinese manufacturers such as great wall, Xiaopeng, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Weilai and other independent car brands have configured new car EDR to varying degrees. However, from the perspective of full caliber, according to the research data of high-tech industry, in 2020, only 1357100 new cars were equipped with EDR equipment, with a market penetration of less than 8%, which has great room for improvement.
From the perspective of China, the integration mode of independent equipment and airbag is also the main way of EDR configuration. Although Tbox can indeed cover the needs of EDR to a certain extent, due to the loading rate and cost of Tbox, the mandatory and particularity of EDR as a regulatory document will have strong landing certainty in the next 1-2 years.
In terms of passenger car increment in 2022 (covered by commercial vehicles), EDR gauge modulus = annual offline quantity * EDR unit price:
1) Volume: according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the offline volume of cars and passenger cars in China was more than 20 million from 2016 to 2020. Considering the reasons for the lack of core and destocking in the main engine plant in 2020 and 2021, it is expected that the offline production volume of 25 million passenger cars will be maintained at least from 2022 to 2025.
2) Price: the prices of the schemes selected by different main engine manufacturers vary. Taking the EDR currently integrated into the airbag module as an example, according to the Hangzhou Hopechart Iot Technology Co.Ltd(688288) prospectus, the ASP (single vehicle value) of the driving recorder is about 500 yuan.
3) Total: according to the calculation of 25 million new passenger vehicles in 2022, if the new EDR policy is enforced for new vehicles, the corresponding market space will be 12.5 billion yuan.
At present, China's EDR has almost achieved full coverage in the field of commercial vehicles. In terms of existing shares, the suppliers of China's commercial vehicle traveling data recorders include Hangzhou Hopechart Iot Technology Co.Ltd(688288) , Qiming Information Technology Co.Ltd(002232) , Streamax Technology Co.Ltd(002970) and other companies. These manufacturers are expected to enter the independent brand passenger car supply chain by virtue of mature EDR products and card position advantages, usher in the downstream space expansion of the market, and drive the pulse market of the secondary market, which can be compared with the etc market in 2019 (policy driven + centralized forced installation). In addition, the data value is becoming increasingly important in the main track of intelligent driving, and they are firmly optimistic about the segmentation leaders Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) , Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) .
Computer - overall investment proposal, focusing on six main lines:
1. Main line of cloud computing SaaS: focus on recommending enterprise SaaS leader Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) , office software leader Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) (joint coverage with small and medium-sized disks), and super Integration Leader Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) .
2. Main line of fintech: focus on recommending securities it Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) and life payment Longshine Technology Group Co.Ltd(300682) (joint coverage of communication group). In addition, Yusys Technologies Co.Ltd(300674) , Shenzhen Sunline Tech Co.Ltd(300348) , Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) all welcome the upswing of the boom.
3. Intelligent driving main line: it is recommended to focus on the on-board OS leader Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) , the intelligent cockpit leader Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (joint coverage of vehicle groups), and the high-precision map leader Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) as the key benefit targets.
4. Main line of artificial intelligence: the intelligent voice leader Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) is mainly recommended. At the same time, companies such as yunzhisheng, which will be listed soon, are also benefit targets.
5. Main line of network security: focus on recommending emerging security double leaders Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) + Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) , Dbappsecurity Co.Ltd(688023) as a subdivision of emerging security leaders will also benefit in depth. Other benefit targets include: Venustech Group Inc(002439) , Xiamen Meiya Pico Information Co.Ltd(300188) , etc.
6. Main line of Xinchuang: domestic WPS leading manufacturer Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) (jointly covered with small and medium-sized disk groups), domestic middleware leading Beijing Tongtech Co.Ltd(300379) , domestic PDF leading Fujian Foxit Software Development Joint Stock Co.Ltd(688095) , and domestic server leading Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) .
Risk tips:
Systemic risks, the landing of scientific and technological innovation policies is less than expected, and the game between China and the United States is intensified.
