Sector market review
This week (12 / 06-12 / 10), the transportation index rose by 2.97%, the CSI 300 index rose by 3.14%, underperformed the market by 0.17%, ranking 6 / 29. Among the transportation sub sectors, express increased the most (7.63%) and the port sector decreased the most (- 0.78%).
Industry perspective
Express: on December 8, the real-time monitoring data of the express big data platform of the State Post Office showed that the express business volume in China had reached 100 billion pieces in 2021. Jitu officially takes a stake in Baishi express, and the integration of the two will further enhance the industry concentration. We believe that under the background of stricter industry supervision, express companies pay less attention to share, turn to multi-dimensional consideration and pay more attention to service quality. Express prices are expected to stabilize next year. In Q4 peak season, the policy of raising prices in grain producing areas was maintained, the profits of express enterprises continued to improve, and the leading express enterprises Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) were recommended. S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) the adjustment of business strategy pays more attention to quality growth, the impact of capacity cycle gradually subsides, Kerry Logistics promotes the development of international business, has strong certainty of performance repair, and is recommended at the current time point.
Logistics: there is a high threshold in the field of chemical logistics. After Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) , Xiangshui and other accidents, the supply of the industry is limited, and the demand side still grows every year. We are optimistic that the chemical logistics sector will pay attention to Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co.Ltd(002930) , Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) . The upgrading of manufacturing industry increases the demand for tob productive supply chain logistics. Enterprises that pay attention to system investment and strong management will win and pay attention to Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) .
Aviation: December 8, The State Drug Administration approved the registration application of temsheng Huachuang’s covid-19 virus neutralizing antibody combined treatment drugs ambacizumab injection (brii-196) and romisvir mAb injection (brii-198), which can reduce the risk of hospitalization and death by 80%. The successful research and development of covid-19 drugs will help the production and life return to normal, “the 14th five year plan” During this period, the growth rate of aviation supply decreased and the market-oriented reform of ticket prices will improve the long-term profits of the airline company. After the adjustment of the aviation sector, the investment value is highlighted. It is recommended to actively allocate, with emphasis on Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) .
Key industry data
Centralized transportation: the CCFI index was 3238.35 points, up 1.23% month on month; The SCFI index was 4810.98 points, up 1.8% month on month; The PDCI index was 1820.00, up 3.94% month on month. Dry powder: the BDI index was 3272.00 points, up 3.2% month on month; The CDFI index was 1525.60 points, down 1.13% month on month. Oil transportation: BDTI index was 785.00 points, up 6.5% month on month; The bcti index was 838.00 points, up 28.7% month on month.
Express: in October 2021, the revenue of express business above designated size was 90.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%; The express business volume was 9.95 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%; The unit price of express delivery was 9.14 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.23%; The brand concentration index CR8 of express and parcel services is 80.80.
Aviation: Brent crude oil was USD 75.15/barrel, up 7.54% month on month; In November 2021, the ex factory price (tax included) of aviation kerosene was 5415.00 yuan / ton, up 16.3% month on month; the central parity of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.3702, down 0.06% month on month.
Railway: in October 2021, the railway passenger volume was 248 million person times, a year-on-year decrease of 8.84%; The railway freight volume was 402 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. Highway: in October 2021, the National Highway freight volume was 3.42 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%; Highway passenger volume was 424 million person times, a year-on-year decrease of 42.00%.
Risk statement
The risk of sharp rise in oil prices, the risk of devaluation of RMB exchange rate and the risk of price war exceeding expectations.
