Core view
Team view: this week, the market continued to ferment the benefits brought by the marginal relaxation of real estate policy, superimposed the RRR reduction, and the consumer building materials sector rebounded significantly. At the central economic work conference on Friday, the statements of “no speculation in real estate” and “implementing policies due to the city” continued the previous tone, emphasizing that the policy will not change and increasing the flexibility of implementation. Continuing the previous view, we believe that the purpose of the policy is to hedge the impact of the real estate downturn on the economy / people’s livelihood, rather than stimulate the real estate industry. The description of infrastructure in this central economic work conference is to carry out infrastructure investment moderately in advance and speed up the formation of a safe and efficient logistics network with internal and external connectivity. We expect that government investment expenditure will be appropriately advanced in the first half of next year, superimposed on the special bonds issued in the second half of this year, and will be transformed into physical workload next year. However, under the guidance of Resolutely Curbing the new local invisible debt, the rebound height of traditional infrastructure may be limited. At the stock price level, we believe that there is still room for consumer building materials to rebound, and it is recommended to configure the leader of consumer building materials.
Market review this week: building materials sector last week (2021 / 12 / 06-2021 / 12 / 10) The (CITIC) index rose 2.3%, which was – 0.9% relative to the excess return of CSI 300. Since the beginning of the year, the yield of building materials sector is 4.7%, which is 7.7% compared with the excess return of CSI 300. The yield of preferred portfolio last week was 0.2%, which is – 2.1% compared with the excess return of building materials index, and the cumulative yield / excess yield is – 4.7% / 2.7%.
Overview of weekly data of building materials: the average price of float glass nationwide this week was 113.73 yuan / weight box, up 2.3% month on month and down 2.3% year on year. The inventory was 33.12 million weight boxes, down 9.5% month on month. The average price of mainstream winding direct yarn in China this week is 6233 yuan / ton; The average price of electronic yarn is 14575 yuan / ton; The average price of alkali free glass fiber yarn is 8325 yuan / ton. The average transaction price in the national cement market this week was 563 yuan / ton. The cement delivery rate decreased by 1.6pct to 57.1% month on month, and the storage capacity decreased by 0.8pct to 65.2% month on month. Among the raw materials of building materials consumed this week, the average price of asphalt was 4177 yuan / ton, up 1.1% month on month; The average price of PVC was 9458 yuan / ton, down 3.1% month on month.
Investment proposal and investment object
Investment suggestions: from the perspective of anti risk, it is mainly recommended to subdivide leaders, including CSG a (000012, buy), China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) (600176, buy), Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) (002271, buy). From an offensive point of view, recommend Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) (603688, buy). It is recommended to focus on Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) (002372, not rated) and Fujian Kuncai Material Technology Co.Ltd(603826) (603826, not rated).
Preferred combination next week: Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) / Fujian Kuncai Material Technology Co.Ltd(603826) / China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) / CSG A / Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) / Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372)
Risk tip: the growth rate of infrastructure / real estate investment does not meet expectations; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly
