Zhou's view: continue to be optimistic about independent rise + electric intelligence + motorcycle
Great changes have taken place in automotive intelligent and electric, reshaping the industrial order, and looking forward to the golden decade of the automotive industry. In November, the new energy penetration rate was nearly 20%, showing a trend of accelerated improvement. Tesla released the self driving fsdbeta10 6. Continue to iterate and firmly recommend the independent rise of complete vehicles + electric intelligent industry chain.
Passenger cars: in November, the output / wholesale sales / retail sales of narrow passenger cars were 222.9/215.0/1816000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 2.1% / - 5.1% / - 12.7% and a month on month increase of + 13.9% / + 8.9% / + 6.0%. The core shortage was gradually alleviated. Among them, in November, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 429000, with a year-on-year increase of + 131.7%, a month on month increase of + 17.9%, and the corresponding penetration rate reached 19.9%; From January to November, the cumulative sales volume was 2.807 million, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 190.2%, and the corresponding penetration rate was 15.0%. The transformation of electric intelligence promotes the great transformation of the vehicle business model, and the scientific and technological attributes and consumption attributes will become more prominent, driving the reconstruction of valuation. We are firmly optimistic about the independent rise and realize the improvement of brand and market share through the transformation. We recommend [Geely Automobile h, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ], pay attention to [ Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) H], and benefit the target [Xiaopeng automobile h, ideal automobile H].
Parts: electric intelligent reshapes the industrial order, firmly looks at many parts, and recommends tbr (Tesla + Byd Company Limited(002594) + rivian) industrial chain + electric intelligent incremental parts:
1. Optimistic about tbr (Tesla + Byd Company Limited(002594) + rivian) industrial chain:
1) Tesla industrial chain: this week Tesla released the self driving fsdbeta10 6. Vision, object detection and vehicle motion accuracy are significantly optimized. Tesla's global sales volume is about 500000 in 2020 and is expected to exceed 900000 this year, with a target of 20 million in 2030. The accelerated growth of sales volume drives the performance growth curve of the industrial chain company to become more steep. It is recommended to recommend more flexible [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) ], benefit targets [ Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ] and potential benefit targets [ Ningbo Hengshuai Co.Ltd(300969) ].
2) Byd Company Limited(002594) industrial chain: Byd Company Limited(002594) the sales volume reached a new high in November. It is expected to exceed 100000 in December. At present, the orders on hand are 200000 +. In 2020, the sales volume will be 430000, this year will exceed 700000, and next year will be 1.5 million, including 300000 and 1 million DM-I series this year and next, respectively. The volume is rapid. It is recommended to [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ], and the beneficiary targets are [ Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) , Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) ].
3) Rivian industrial chain: at present, rivian has launched high-end electric pickup r1t (starting at $67500), suvr1s (starting at $70000) and EDV series commercial electric trucks, and has obtained an advance order of 100000 customized trucks from Amazon. Moreover, pickup is expected to maintain 20% of the market share in the new car market in the United States, with high sales volume and expected growth. It is recommended to recommend [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ], and benefit targets [ Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Tianjin Motor Dies Co.Ltd(002510) ] 。 Rivian adopts a sliding plate chassis platform (i.e. non load-bearing body structure + wire transmission steering / braking system + battery pack and chassis integration), which is expected to lead the industry innovation and become the mainstream trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the layout of wire controlled braking [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ] and the beneficiary object of hub motor [ Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) ].
2. Optimistic about electric intelligent incremental parts:
1) Electrification increment: three power system industrial chain [ Byd Company Limited(002594) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ], The beneficiary targets [ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (covered by the power new group), Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) , Jing-Jin Electric Technologies Co.Ltd(688280) , Zhuhai Enpower Electric Co.Ltd(300681) ]; the new energy thermal management industrial chain [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ], the beneficiary targets [ Ningbo Hengshuai Co.Ltd(300969) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) ]; the lightweight industrial chain [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], the beneficiary targets [ Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co.Ltd(002824) ].
2) Intelligent increment: autopilot industry chain [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) *, Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) ], benefiting from [Nextel]; Intelligent cockpit industry chain [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) *, Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ] ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Fuyao are jointly covered with computer group and building materials group respectively).
Motorcycles: in October, China sold 29100 medium and large displacement motorcycles, a year-on-year increase of + 50.3%, The chain comparison was - 5.2% (273600 vehicles were sold from January to October, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 63.7%). Medium and large displacement motorcycles represent the direction of consumption upgrading, with huge market potential. Their share will be concentrated in independent and joint venture brands with outstanding brand strength, leading powertrain technology and perfect channel layout. It is recommended that [ Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) , Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) ].
This week's market: overall weaker than the market, led by passenger cars
This week, the A-share auto sector rose 0.3%, ranking 14th in Shenwan sub industry, weaker than CSI 300 (up 3.1%). In the sub sectors, passenger cars, auto parts, other transportation equipment and trucks rose 0.9%, 0.3%, 0.3% and 0.3% respectively; automobile services and buses fell 0.7% and 1.0% respectively.
Data of this week: the lack of core gradually eased and the wholesale continued to pick up
In the fourth week of November, the average daily wholesale sales volume was 119000 units, with a year-on-year increase of + 10% and a month on month increase of + 15%; The average daily retail sales volume was 99000, with a year-on-year increase of - 4% and a month on month increase of + 34%.
Risk statement
Chip supply shortage; Fluctuations in raw material costs; Sales recovery was less than expected.
