Weekly performance of sectors: this week (2021 / 12 / 6-2021 / 12 / 10), the top five sectors were agricultural machinery / engineering machinery / machine tool tools / mechanical basic parts / other general machinery, up 2.4% / 2.0% / 1.8% / 1.4% / 1.1% respectively;
Sector valuation level: the median pettm of the machinery sector is 40x, of which the highest valuation is heavy machinery (58x) and the lowest valuation is construction machinery (15.2x). From the historical data within 10 years, the P / E ratio of the machinery sector is 41.11%;
Weekly tracking of individual stocks: from the rise and fall of individual stocks, the five stocks with the highest increase this week are Beijing Jingcheng Machinery Electric Company Limited(600860) , Hunan Yujing Machinery Co.Ltd(002943) , Baota Industry Co.Ltd(000595) , Guangzhou Wahlap Technology Corporation Limited(301011) , Sijin Intelligent Forming Machinery Co.Ltd(003025) .
Industry highlights: (1) the demand of the construction machinery industry has gradually flattened. According to the data released by China Construction Machinery Industry Association on December 9, the sales volume of excavators in China has continued to decline year-on-year since May this year. The export market is hot, and the export volume increased by more than 90% year-on-year from January to November; (2) China coal transportation and Marketing Association recently released Notice on connection between coal production and demand in 2022; (3) Han Wenxiu, deputy director in charge of daily work of the office of the central financial and Economic Commission, said that China’s economic development is facing triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations.
Investment proposal and investment object
Looking at the prospect of machinery in 22 years from the central economic work conference. According to the People.Cn Co.Ltd(603000) , the central economic work conference was held in Beijing from December 8 to 10. The conference called for stability and progress in economic work next year. The meeting analyzed many aspects of the economy. In terms of macro policies, the meeting pointed out that we should ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure, accelerate the progress of expenditure, moderately advance infrastructure investment, and organically combine cross cycle and counter cycle macro-control policies. In terms of structural policies, we should focus on unblocking the cycle of the national economy, enhance the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, start a number of industrial infrastructure reconstruction projects, and stimulate the emergence of a large number of “specialized and new” enterprises. In addition, the meeting pointed out that we should correctly understand and grasp the carbon peak and carbon neutralization, the gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy, and promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy based on the basic national conditions of coal.
Focus on counter cyclical regulation and energy opportunities. At present, the situation of construction machinery and loans reflects short-term pressure. According to the industry statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in November 2021, the industry sales of excavators decreased by 36.6% year-on-year, of which the Chinese market sales decreased by 51.4% year-on-year and the export increased by 89.0% year-on-year. According to the data of the central bank, RMB loans increased by 1.27 trillion yuan in November, a year-on-year decrease of 160.5 billion yuan, of which medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased by 341.7 billion yuan, falling for many consecutive months. We put forward in the 2022 strategy report of the machinery industry, which is in the process of gaining momentum, that the growth rate of the industry will still be under pressure in the short term, but this is actually a process of gaining momentum. In the process of gaining momentum, we suggest paying attention to the strong α And weak β Industries and companies, especially the generalized counter cyclical plate, the weak cyclical plate with smooth growth rate, and companies benefiting from the price reduction of raw materials and export boom. Combined with the description of “stability” in this central economic work conference, we believe that the subdivided sectors are expected to return to equilibrium in 2022.
It is recommended to pay attention to:
(1) Construction machinery: Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) (600031, not rated), Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) (000157, bought), Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) (601100, not rated), Shaanxi Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(600984) (600984, not rated), Yantai Eddie Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(603638) (603638, not rated); (2) Industrial equipment: Hangcha Group Co.Ltd(603298) (603298, Unrated), Anhui Heli Co.Ltd(600761) (600761, Unrated), Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co.Ltd(000837) (000837, Unrated), Guangdong Yizumi Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300415) (300415, Unrated), Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) (002747, Unrated), Guangdong Topstar Technology Co.Ltd(300607) (300607, Unrated); (3) Logistics automation: Nanjing Inform Storage Equipment (Group) Co.Ltd(603066) (603066, not rated), Noblelift Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(603611) (603611, not rated), Cimc Vehicles (Group) Co.Ltd(301039) (301039, not rated); (4) Energy equipment: Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) (300450, not rated), Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) (300724, not rated), Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) (002353, not rated), Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Co.Ltd(601717) (601717, not rated), Tiandi Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600582) (600582, not rated); (5) Rail transit equipment: Crrc Corporation Limited(601766) (601766, not rated), Guangdong Huatie Tongda High-Speed Railway Equipment Corporation(000976) (000976, not rated); (6) Service & Consumption: Shenzhen Anche Technologies Co.Ltd(300572) (300572, Unrated), Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) (300012, Unrated), Jack Sewing Machine Co.Ltd(603337) (603337, Unrated), Zhejiang Jiecang Linear Motion Technology Co.Ltd(603583) (603583, Unrated), Changzhou Kaidi Electrical Inc(605288) (605288, Unrated), Hangzhou Youngsun Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(603901) (603901, Unrated).
Risk statement
The epidemic development is less than expected, the macro economy is less than expected, infrastructure investment is less than expected, raw material prices rise, and Global trade conflicts intensify.
