The press release of the central economic work conference can focus on the following four points in the banking field:
Seek truth from facts and face the “triple pressure” of economic development – demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation, and the demand for “stable growth” is on paper. First, facing the three major pressures facing China’s economy, we have adhered to the basic attitude of “seeking truth from facts” and have not avoided the prominent problems existing in the process of economic operation. The second is to correct the work objectives and methods, and avoid the situation of “death in one management and chaos in one release” at the implementation level. Third, a pragmatic package of policy instruments for stabilizing the economy was put forward. This also indicates that the demands of the follow-up macro-control policies on steady growth will be further increased, and the “policy bottom” is expected to gradually transmit to the “economic bottom”. Next year, the macro-economy will stop the downward trend and rebound, which will also create a stable market environment for banking operation.
It emphasizes the combination of cross cyclical and counter cyclical regulatory policies, and the “double arrows” of fiscal and monetary policies. In terms of finance, it is expected that the issuance rhythm of government bonds is expected to be ahead in 2022, the amount of special bonds is slightly higher than 3.65 trillion, the deficit ratio may be maintained at 3-3.2%, and the total ceiling of net financing of government bonds will be maintained at 7-7.5 trillion. In terms of currency, aggregate instruments will continue to work in due time. Structural instruments such as refinancing are expected to play a greater role in “adjusting structure, filling gaps, preventing risks and stabilizing regions”. It is still an option to stimulate aggregate demand through interest rate relaxation. It is expected that the bank credit environment will improve in 2022, but there will be no credit pulse. The annual new credit scale will remain at about 21 trillion, with a growth rate of 10.8%.
Continue to adhere to the principle of “no speculation in housing and housing”, but emphasize meeting “reasonable needs”. First, the stability of the real estate market is an important part of financial stability. Under the principle of “housing without speculation”, it is of great significance to maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Second, the real estate financing environment is expected to be continuously improved, the cash flow risk of real estate enterprises is reduced, and stabilizing sales is put on the agenda. The explanation of “reasonable housing demand” does not rule out the future policy adjustment of “recognizing both houses and loans” or the relaxation of “four restrictions” due to urban policies to meet the demand for improved house purchase. Third, the real estate market will enter a new stage of development in the future. At the real estate sales end and M & A end, the policy is also expected to be “fine tuned”. Fourth, avoid the emergence of the risk of “lying flat” and debt evasion by real estate enterprises.
To prevent and resolve major risks, we need to compact the tripartite responsibility under the overall principle of “stabilizing the overall situation, overall coordination, classified measures and accurate bomb removal”. First, clarify the first responsibility of local party and government risk disposal, and it is necessary for all localities to “abide by it”
At the same time, we should strengthen the efficient linkage with the central government. The second is to consolidate the regulatory responsibility, supervise and urge the rectification of problematic financial institutions, and increase the cost of punishment for violations. The central bank should also implement it and play the role of lender of last resort. Third, the main responsibility for self-help of the enterprise should be compacted, the problem shareholders and management should be resolutely dismissed, and the shareholders should “exhaust their ability” to “pay the bill” for the extensive and highly leveraged operation in the past; We should adhere to the basic principle that “doing business requires capital” and prevent enterprise shareholders from “hollowing out” the enterprise through related party transactions. On this basis, the enterprise needs to maintain its operation, restore its self “hematopoietic” ability, gradually peel off its non main business, and introduce “living water” through asset transfer, war introduction, M & A and other mechanisms to restore the vitality of the enterprise.
Countermeasures for bank asset liability management. First, asset liability manipulation strategy. The overall credit increment planning is expected to be flat or slightly higher than that in 2021; The increment of corporate loans is implemented in accordance with the principle of “steady growth in total amount and more balanced structure”. Structurally, it is “stabilizing real estate, strengthening infrastructure, promoting manufacturing, supporting green and expanding small and micro enterprises”; Maintain the retail credit increment plan roughly the same as that in 2021. On the basis of ensuring the stable growth of mortgage loans, balance the relationship between “volume increase” and “risk control” of scenario businesses such as consumer loans and credit cards. Second, liquidity management strategy. State owned banks should slightly improve the LCR and nsfr limit targets, strengthen the limit management of overseas branches and subsidiaries, and improve the use efficiency of reserve funds. Third, pricing management strategy. Strengthen the “limit management” of current products such as cash management financial management, call deposits, and fixed and flexible agreement deposits. Fourth, capital management strategy. Large banks can explore the issue of TLAC tools. Joint stock banks should reduce the pressure of capital management through the transfer of on balance sheet and off balance sheet risk assets, the establishment of performance evaluation system aiming at EVA and RORAC, and the promotion of advanced methods. Small and medium-sized banks should explore more flexible discount capital and share expansion measures to supplement capital.
Risk analysis: the downward pressure on the macro economy has increased, and the credit easing is less than expected.
