New energy: the central economic work conference set the shift from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of carbon emission assessment, and further encourage the substitution of renewable energy in the field of end-user energy, so as to fully benefit the wind and solar energy storage; Maintain sector recommendation, and select links / companies with high certainty of profit realization, large amount of benefits and improved pattern.
At the central economic work conference on Friday, the instructions on the dual carbon goals and tasks were very colorful, and some important new formulations appeared. First of all, it is clear that double carbon work should be “firmly recommended, but not completed in one battle”, reflecting China’s policy characteristics of “both necessary and necessary”. On the one hand, it is clear that double carbon work has an unshakable core position in China’s economic development for a long time, On the other hand, it also shows that lessons need to be learned from the fluctuations and contradictions in the industrial chain caused by simple and rough management in some areas in the third quarter of this year.
In terms of details, the new formulation of “new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control, and create conditions to realize the transformation from” dual control “of energy consumption to” dual control “of total carbon emission and intensity” as soon as possible has aroused great concern in the market. In fact, there are three important marginal changes here: 1) the assessment of renewable energy consumption has been upgraded from “in areas that meet the incentive indicators, the renewable energy power consumption above the minimum indicator requirements will not be included in the assessment” stipulated in the energy consumption dual control scheme in September this year to “all new renewable energy” will not be included in the total assessment; 2) The energy consumption of raw materials (such as coal, petroleum, etc. as raw materials rather than fuel directly used in chemical production) is not included in the total assessment, which can release about 6% of the total energy consumption index; 3) it is clear that under appropriate conditions, the transformation from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of carbon emission.
We believe that the marginal changes in the above policy formulation mainly have the following effects on the new energy industry: 1) it is obvious to strengthen efforts to encourage the use of renewable energy in the field of terminal energy consumption, so as to avoid the phased contradiction between “economic development is bound to accompany energy consumption growth” and the realization of double carbon goals; 2) Exemption from total amount control means that it is still constrained by intensity control, which is conducive to the increase of the share of technologically advantageous enterprises; 3) The release of raw material energy utilization index is conducive to the construction of new capacity in some high energy carrying industries, but it is not the “energy consumption for production of raw materials in the upstream of new energy is not included in the total assessment” misunderstood by some previous views.
For the above third impact, we think: for the production of high energy carrying raw materials upstream of some new energy power generation equipment, there is still the possibility of differentiated management in the approval of energy consumption indicators in the future, but it is almost impossible to be unrestricted. At the same time, considering that the export-oriented renewable energy equipment manufacturing industry represented by photovoltaic may face the full life cycle carbon footprint tracing of products and the potential collection of carbon border tax at any time in the future, the new production capacity will also need to be constructed in areas with a high proportion of clean energy as far as possible, which brings restrictions on the expansion of production areas, On the other hand, it may also improve the energy cost level of new capacity, so as to support the cost curve of the industrial chain.
In terms of industrial chain, under the influence of some second-line enterprises continuing to sell inventory, the market price of silicon wafer continues to fall, the price of silicon material also loosens, and the industrial chain continues to seek a “new balance between supply and demand”. In addition, new players of monocrystalline silicon Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) signed three long orders for supply of monocrystalline silicon rods / wafers this week. According to incomplete statistics, the amount of new long orders for silicon wafers signed this year has exceeded 80 billion yuan. The performance responsibility of a large number of long orders for silicon wafers of new and old players of silicon wafers will also change into the pressure on them to purchase silicon materials to a certain extent, So as to support the price of silicon material that still has a high probability to become the bottleneck of the industrial chain next year.
From the perspective of investment, the market’s worries and fears about “price reduction” have been largely digested in the plate oscillation in the past period. At present, it is an ideal time window for the layout plate to realize the certainty of next year’s performance. Silicon / EVA / quartz in the bottleneck of the supply chain, auxiliary materials / Consumables / inverter benefiting from the release of silicon supply, and And the integrated components with continuously improved pattern can be added.
Risk tip: the price competition in the industrial chain is more intense than expected; The global epidemic worsened more than expected.
