Core view
In November, the auto market approval and zero month on month improvement, and the growth trend of new energy & export continued
1. Overall passenger cars: batch and zero synchronization month on month improvement in November. 1) In terms of wholesale sales, the sales volume of passenger cars in China in November was 2.192 million, with a yoy of - 4.7% / + 9.2% respectively; 2) In terms of retail, the number of compulsory insurance in November was - 13.1% / + 4.9% month on month.
2. New energy: retail sales picked up month on month growth in November. 1) In terms of batch sales, according to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in November was 427000, with a yoy / mom of + 121.1% / + 17.3% respectively. Among them, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 339000 (YoY + 116.1% / + 13.8%) and the sales volume of hybrid vehicles was 88000 (YoY + 174.0% / + 30.3%). The penetration rate of passenger cars in Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) in mid November was 19.5%, and the cumulative penetration rate from January to November was 14.9%; 2) in terms of retail, the passenger Federation data showed that the retail sales volume of new energy vehicles in November was + 19.4%, following the decline in October (- 3.9%) increased again; 3) from the perspective of branch manufacturers, there were 14 new energy vehicle wholesale manufacturers with more than 10000 in November, and the top three were Byd Company Limited(002594) (90000), Tesla (53000) and SAIC GM Wuling (50000). The total wholesale volume of SAIC (Wuling + independent + Volkswagen) was 74000.
3. Exports: increased year-on-year in November. 1) On the whole, China's passenger car export volume reached 170000 in November, with a month on month ratio of + 71.2% / - 14.1% respectively. Tesla's export volume decreased by 20000 this month, which is the main reason for the month on month decline in export volume; In the first November, the cumulative export of passenger cars was 1.427 million, a year-on-year increase of + 121.6%, accounting for 7.5% of the market; 2) In terms of vehicle enterprises, in November, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) overseas sales were 75000 (same / month on month + 32% / - 14% respectively), Great Wall overseas sales were 15000 (same / month on month + 61% / + 7% respectively), and Geely Automobile overseas sales were 13000 (same / month on month + 11% / + 29% respectively). The overseas sales of independent vehicle enterprises increased year-on-year.
The depth of inventory continues to recover, and the demand is expected to release gradually
According to the data of Automobile Circulation Association, the inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in November was 1.35, rising month on month for the second consecutive month. Dealers are expected to realize net inventory accumulation for two consecutive months. 1) Dealers accelerate replenishment. The Association believes that the impact of chip shortage is gradually reduced, and dealers begin to strengthen the replenishment of inventory to prepare for the peak season of automobile consumption before the festival; 2) Demand is expected to gradually release. The Association expects that most auto enterprises will not be able to achieve the task target this year, and the dealers will not be willing to rush at the end of the year, and part of the demand will be transferred to January 2022.
Investment suggestion: we believe that the compound growth center of the auto market is expected to remain at 10% + this year and next. From the perspective of medium-term investment, there is no need to worry about the mitigation intensity of chips in the fourth quarter. We suggest to actively participate in the replenishment market. 1. It is recommended to pay attention to Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) of the upward cycle of the product and Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) with large replenishment space. 2. Suppliers of automotive electronics related parts are expected to achieve domestic substitution and price volume increase in the acceleration of the industry. It is recommended to pay attention to: Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) (EPB + wire controlled braking), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) (light control), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) (intelligent lamp), Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (Intelligent cabin system), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), etc.
Risk tip: the mitigation progress of core shortage in the automobile industry is less than expected, the recovery of industry demand is less than expected, the process of automobile intelligent industry is less than expected, and the development of new energy automobile industry is less than expected.
