This week, power equipment and new energy (CITIC level I) fell 1.56%, 4.71 percentage points behind the market. In terms of overall market performance, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.63%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 3.14%, and the gem index fell 0.34%. Among the sub sectors of power equipment, electrical equipment decreased by 1.04%, wind power decreased by 1.68% and photovoltaic increased by 4.47%. In addition, new energy vehicles (CSI) fell 2.58%, 5.72 percentage points behind the market; New energy power generation operation (Yangtze River) fell 2.09%, 5.24 percentage points behind the market.
This week, SW utilities (level I) rose 0.01%, outperforming the market by 3.13 percentage points. Among the utilities sub sectors, SW power rose 0.85%, SW environmental protection projects and services fell 2.20% (outperforming the market by 5.35 percentage points), SW gas fell 1.53%, and SW water fell 0.36% (outperforming the market by 3.51 percentage points).
Investment perspective:
Key targets:
Recommended Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) ; Follow Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) , Cybrid Technologies Inc(603212) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) , Zhejiang Xcc Group Co.Ltd;(603667) , Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co.Ltd(300360) .
PV:
1. Central economic work conference: new renewable energy and raw material energy will not be included in the total energy consumption control. (1) It will benefit the release of upstream capacity constrained by energy consumption, promote its price reduction, and help the overall decline of midstream costs; (2) for the upstream of photovoltaic (silicon material and industrial silicon), it will be easier to obtain energy assessment approval if traceable renewable energy is used in the future; (3) In favor of distributed energy and green power, enterprises are more willing to launch distributed energy or find traceable renewable energy to reduce their total energy consumption.
2. China's second batch of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas have begun to apply, It is required that the declared projects have been approved (filed) and can start construction in 2022. In principle, they can be connected to the grid in 2023, and the scale of individual projects is not less than 1 million KW, and it is clear that the submission time is before December 15. The second batch of large base projects is Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) in 2023 The growth of installed capacity provides a strong guarantee. In addition, the United States / Germany and other places have issued favorable policies for new energy. We continue to be optimistic about the acceleration of new photovoltaic installed capacity in the world in the next few years.
3. This week, the downstream pressure of the industrial chain continued to transmit to the upstream, and the capacity of Tongwei, poly GCL and Daquan silicon materials continued to release. The price of silicon materials has become loose, falling by about 10000 yuan / ton to about 260000 yuan / ton this week, a decrease of about 3.5%; The profitability of components and operators is expected to be improved in the future.
4. At present, we focus on: (1) distributed: recommend Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) ; (2) downstream links: recommend Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) ; (3) benefit from cost reduction: focus on Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) .
Electric vehicles and lithium batteries:
(1) According to the current production expansion, it is expected that the supply of battery materials will be released in 22 years, the pressure on battery cost will be relieved, the battery enterprises will make positive progress towards downstream favorable price, and the profits of battery enterprises are expected to be upward in 22 years; looking forward to 23 years, the growth rate of installed capacity of battery links will be flat or even accelerated month on month, and the links with significant barriers will have more long-term growth capacity and the trend of pattern optimization. Pay attention to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) 、 Byd Company Limited(002594) 、 Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) 、 Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) 、 Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) 。
(2) The global sales of new energy vehicles maintained a high level of prosperity. According to the data of the passenger Federation, the retail sales of passenger vehicles in Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) in mid November were + 122.3% year-on-year / month on month + 19.4% to 378000 (penetration rate + 2.0pcts to 20.8% month on month). The sales of new energy vehicles in seven European countries in November were 175000, year-on-year + 33% and month on month + 20% (the overall auto market was - 16% year-on-year and + 8.0% month on month), and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 27% and + 2.7pct month on month.
(3) Since the second half of this year, the progress of new technologies for power batteries has accelerated, and the industrialization of new technologies such as 4680 large cylinders + CTC, composite collector technology (PET copper aluminum foil) and silicon carbon negative electrode has accelerated. Attention has been paid to the improvement of subdivision pattern by new technologies, including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , Kunshan Dongwei Technology Co.Ltd(688700) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , beiteri, Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) .
New energy operators:
1. Central economic work conference: new renewable energy and raw material energy will not be included in the total energy consumption control, which is conducive to the improvement of green power demand.
2. In the context of double carbon, the demand for green power has gradually increased, the green power premium + scenery manufacturing cost has decreased, the profit margin of new energy operation projects has improved, the state and enterprises have accelerated the development of new energy power generation, and the financial institutions have further increased their support for new energy operation projects. We are optimistic about the future investment opportunities of new energy operators.
3、 In terms of investment: (1) new energy operators have good roe and installed growth rate exceeding the industry average: recommend China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , pay attention to Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) , Longyuan Power (H); (2) transformation of new energy & local new energy enterprises: pay attention to Guangdong Electric Power Development Co.Ltd(000539) , China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , China Resources Power, Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) , Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Jiangsu New Energy Development Co.Ltd(603693) ; (3) Distributed PV can achieve high turnover through business model innovation: recommend Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) ; (4) traditional industry companies have a certain growth rate of operational asset planning, and can expand the capital cooperation mode: pay attention to Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) .
Energy storage:
1. Central economic work conference: increase new energy consumption capacity. In the context of the rapid development of new energy power generation, if the relevant guarantee work is not done well, the rapid withdrawal of traditional energy will have a great negative impact on the overall energy security. On the one hand, at this stage, we still need to make clean and efficient use of coal and other traditional energy, and gradually withdraw traditional energy for a long time in the future; On the other hand, we should accelerate the development of supporting supporting facilities for new energy power generation, strengthen the construction of UHV, distribution network transformation and energy storage, and improve the consumption capacity of new energy.
2、 Implementation plan for power purchase by power grid enterprises in Guangdong Province (for Trial Implementation) Release: it is clear that the auxiliary service costs mainly include the costs of energy storage and pumped storage power stations and demand side response, and the relevant costs shall be shared by all industrial and commercial users. The energy storage cost began to transfer to the user side, and the energy storage business model gradually became available. The allocation of energy storage cost is the core issue in the current power grid side energy storage construction. The scheme of Guangdong Province transmits the energy storage cost to the downstream user side for the first time. This time, Guangdong Province has made clear the problem of cost verification and the main body to bear: the expenses of energy storage and pumped storage power stations are determined according to the amount of actual monthly costs incurred by power grid enterprises; Relevant expenses shall be shared by all industrial and commercial users. Further rationalized the business model of energy storage and pumping storage. In the follow-up, we need to continue to pay attention to the response methods related to power grid enterprises in various provinces.
3. Under the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization in China, the vigorous development of renewable energy is inseparable from the guarantee of large amount of energy storage for the stability of power system, and the construction progress of electrochemical energy storage and pumped storage has been accelerated; The demand of overseas household market rises, and the electrochemical energy storage market accelerates its growth. We are optimistic about investment opportunities in the energy storage industry for a long time.
4. Investment: Huawei's energy storage system benefits most from the development of China's energy storage field. We recommend Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , and pay attention to Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) ; Ningde energy storage system, recommended Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) ; In the field of PCs, Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) is recommended and Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) is concerned; Industrial and commercial energy storage, recommended Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) ; Super capacitor direction, recommended Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) .
Wind power:
1. The biggest share price elasticity of the wind power industry comes from the decline of the cost side, and the judgment of the trend of economic data and steel price is the core: according to the data of Lange steel network, the steel price entered the downward channel after reaching the high point on October 11, down 17% as of November 26.
2. Domestic substitution + Dual sea strategy is the long-term development direction of wind power industry. Under the catalysis of "carbon neutralization", coastal provinces are strengthening the planning and construction of offshore wind power. At the same time, under the background of large-scale and domestic substitution, the process of offshore wind parity is expected to accelerate. In the future, if the national level also continues to strengthen the development and approval of projects in sea areas under state control, we believe that the new installed capacity of offshore wind power in China is expected to exceed expectations during the "14th five year plan".
3. In terms of investment: (1) Haifeng construction is expected to exceed expectations. Under the domestic substitution logic, recommend Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) and pay attention to Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) ; (2) under the domestic substitution logic, pay attention to Zhejiang Xcc Group Co.Ltd;(603667) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) ; (3) under the profit recovery logic, pay attention to Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) and Sany Heavy energy (to be listed).
Grid:
1. "Photovoltaic information" reported that Shaoguan, Changde and other places suspended the filing of photovoltaic projects, mainly because the declared projects far exceeded the consumption capacity of the power grid; The administrative measures for the development and construction of photovoltaic power stations (Exposure Draft) of the energy bureau emphasizes that the supporting power transmission project of photovoltaic power stations should be coordinated with the construction of photovoltaic power stations; with the increase of renewable energy, especially the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic, the consumption problem will become a contradiction again, and the investment in power grid and energy storage in relevant fields is expected to accelerate.
2. According to the disclosure of the State Grid e-commerce platform, from January to November 2021, the bidding amount of State Grid smart meters was 20 billion, an increase of 50% over the whole year of 2020. According to the provisions of the national metrological verification regulation of the people's Republic of China, the verification cycle of electricity meters generally does not exceed 8 years. With the start of a new round of meter replacement cycle, it is expected that the meter will start a new round of business cycle. The new generation of smart meters has added modules such as remote communication and power quality detection, and the value of a single meter has increased significantly. With the launch of the carbon market, enterprises and governments have monitoring needs for key nodes of electric energy and carbon emission, and measurement equipment is expected to become the rigid demand for carbon reduction.
3. In December 2020, The Ministry of industry and information technology and other three departments issued the transformer energy efficiency improvement plan (2021-2023). The document has been implemented since June 2021, and it is proposed to increase the operation proportion of energy-saving transformers in the grid by 10% by 2023 (compared with the end of 2020). The recent power grid bidding has been reflected. Stock scale: there are about 17 million transformers operating in the power grid in China, and we expect the average annual demand to be about 570000 units from 2021 to 2023. Based on the average price of 20000 yuan / unit, the annual market scale is about 11.4 billion yuan. Incremental scale: the annual bidding for distribution transformers of the State Grid is about 200000-300000 units. Considering the industrial and commercial demand, we expect the annual incremental scale About 600000 sets. According to the proportion of 75% of the new fields, the annual demand for energy-saving transformers is 450000 sets (9 billion yuan). The total annual market demand is about 20.4 billion yuan. The promotion of energy-saving transformers will increase the consumption of amorphous materials and high-grade silicon steel in iron core, and the demand for energy-saving transformers and upstream materials is expected to increase.
In the context of accelerating the construction of a new power system, the power grid investment increased during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and there were great opportunities for structural investment in some fields. It is recommended to pay attention to:
1) Grid regulation, energy storage and SVG: Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electronic Apparatus Co.Ltd(600379) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) , East Group Co.Ltd(300376) , Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co.Ltd(002169) , Windsun Science Technology Co.Ltd(688663) ;
3) Smart meter: Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co.Ltd(300360) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Hexing Electrical Co.Ltd(603556) , Beijing Yupont Electric Power Technology Co.Ltd(688597) , Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) ;
2) Energy saving transformer: Yunlu Co., Ltd., Advanced Technology & Materials Co.Ltd(000969) , Jiangsu Yangdian Science & Technology Co.Ltd(301012) , State Grid Yingda Co.Ltd(600517) ;
4) Intelligent monitoring and maintenance of power grid: Hangzhou Kelin Electric Co.Ltd(688611) , Zhiyang Innovation Technology Co.Ltd(688191) , Hangzhou Shenhao Technology Co.Ltd(300853) , Yijiahe Technology Co.Ltd(603666) , China Southern Power Grid Technology (not listed after the meeting);
5) Gil gas insulated transmission: Jiangsu Ankura Smart Transmission Engineering Technology Co.Ltd(300617) .
Risk tips:
The sales volume of new energy vehicles and the expansion of overseas auto enterprises were less than expected; The progress of issuing policies is less than expected; The recovery of fan bidding price is lower than expected, and the price of raw materials in the industrial chain fluctuates; The investment and information construction of State Grid are lower than expected risks; The implementation of environmental protection policies and the signing of orders are lower than expected.
