From January to November, the cumulative volume of transactions was – 16% year-on-year, the cumulative average transaction price was + 9% year-on-year, and the proportion of non transactions in a single month accounted for 71%
From January to November, the land transaction and construction area of Baicheng was 1.091 billion square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 16.2%; The total transaction price was 3.76 trillion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 8.5%; The average transaction price was 3442 yuan / m2, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 9.2%. The cumulative proportion of uncompleted land in the traded land is 30% (25% from January to October).
In November, 1559 lands were sold and 1107 lands were not sold in Baicheng; The proportion of land not traded in a single month of land traded is 71% (49% in October). In November, the threshold of land auction in many cities was lower than that in the second round. At the same time, the government adjusted the rules of land auction to appropriately transfer profits, but real estate enterprises still took a wait-and-see attitude and were cautious in land acquisition. Considering the continuous repair of liquidity in the real estate industry since the fourth quarter, it is expected that after the comprehensive RRR reduction, the tight cash flow situation of real estate enterprises will be alleviated to a certain extent, and the land transaction situation may usher in marginal reform Good.
According to the urban energy level, the transaction of first-line houses remained resilient, and the premium rate continued to decline.
1) According to the urban energy level, the transaction and construction areas of the first, second and third and fourth lines of land in 100 cities in November were 9.14 million square meters, 37.19 million square meters and 63.92 million square meters respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 6.2%, + 1.5% and – 0.2% respectively. The total transaction price was 67 billion yuan, 118 billion yuan and 108.3 billion yuan respectively, with a single month year-on-year ratio of – 19.6%, – 8.1% and – 31.2% respectively. The average transaction prices were 7329 yuan / m2, 3173 yuan / m2 and 1694 yuan / m2 respectively, with a year-on-year rate of – 14.3%, – 9.5% and – 31.1% respectively.
2) According to the urban energy level, the first line, second line Three or four wire For residential buildings, the transaction area was 518 square meters, 14.39 million square meters and 22.71 million square meters respectively, with a monthly year-on-year increase of + 5.6%, – 19.5% and – 19.4% respectively. The total transaction price was 56.8 billion yuan, 104.1 billion yuan and 75.4 billion yuan respectively, with a monthly year-on-year increase of – 8.7%, – 6.0% and – 42.8% respectively. The average transaction price was 10974 yuan / square meter, 7230 yuan / square meter, 3322 yuan / square meter respectively, with a monthly year-on-year increase of – 13.6% +16.8%、-29.1%。 The transaction premium rate of first and second tier residential land continued to decline, and the third and fourth tier rebounded, respectively 3.61%, 1.56% and 1.22% (3.7%, 2.3% and 0.2% in October).
3) According to the land type, in November, the construction area of residential, commercial service, commercial housing and industrial transactions in the land of 100 cities were 36.64 million square meters, 12.58 million square meters, 5.64 million square meters and 51.37 million square meters respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.0%, – 0.5%, – 63.3% and + 23.8% respectively. The total transaction price was 1940 billion yuan, 35.8 billion yuan, 42.4 billion yuan and 18.1 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 15.8%, – 19.6%, – 43.1% and + 42.3% respectively. The average transaction prices were 5294 yuan / m2, 2842 yuan / m2, 7508 yuan / m2 and 353 yuan / m2 respectively, with a year-on-year rate of – 18.3%, – 19.2%, + 55.1% and + 15.0% respectively.
Investment suggestion: the central bank set the tone of “two maintenance” on September 24 and dispelled doubts on October 15“ α “Risk” exposure and“ β Coefficient “healthy and stable; The pilot of real estate tax is conducive to reducing the tax pressure on development and house purchase, and the house purchase restriction measures in the pilot areas are expected to gradually withdraw, Evergrande“ α The “risk” repair has entered the implementation stage; Since the fourth quarter, the liquidity of the real estate industry has continued to repair. It is expected that development loans and mortgage loans will continue to pick up. The central bank will comprehensively reduce the reserve requirement by 0.5 percentage points, release long-term funds of 1.2 trillion yuan, and the “leverage stable” private enterprise real estate is more favorable; The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate market. The central economic work conference reiterated the “no speculation in housing” and then put forward the “implementation of policies due to the city”. We believe that the house purchase restriction measures in some regions will be gradually withdrawn, accelerate the citizenization of agricultural transfer population, and better support the reasonable house purchase demand of residents; The attention and confidence of the capital market in the real estate sector will gradually increase, with emphasis on China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) / Vanke enterprises, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Jinmao, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; It is recommended to pay attention to Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , rongchuang China, China overseas development, China Resources Land and Longhu group.
Risk analysis: global inflation expectations push up real estate development costs, and covid-19 epidemic affects residents’ income and credit expansion; The “three red lines” of real estate enterprises superimpose the centralized debt repayment period, and some real estate enterprises may have credit default.
