Key investment points
Market last week: light industry manufacturing sector rose. From December 6, 2021 to December 12, 2021, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.47%, and the light industry manufacturing index rose by 2.53%, ranking seventh among the 28 Shenwan industries; The rise and fall of light industry manufacturing index sub sectors from high to low are: household light industry (+ 7.01%), papermaking (- 0.61%), packaging and printing (- 1.53%).
Furniture: the national development and Reform Commission proposed “furniture and home decoration to the countryside” and reiterated the valuation and repair opportunities. At the regular policy briefing of the State Council held by the State Council Information Office on December 8, 2021, Wu Xiao, director of the rural economy Department of the national development and Reform Commission, proposed to implement the subsidy for furniture and home decoration to the countryside and promote the renewal of durable consumer goods for rural residents. According to the policy of home appliances going to the countryside from 2007 to 2013, rural demand continues to release with the promotion of the policy throughout the country. Subsidies continued to increase, promote the upgrading of rural consumption, and significantly stimulate the consumption demand of rural household appliances. During the promotion period of household appliances to the countryside policy, the overall performance of the household appliances sector was significantly stronger than the market. The furniture to the countryside policy is expected to reproduce the process of home appliances to the countryside, promote the penetration and consumption upgrading of furniture products, and provide more sufficient power for the medium and long-term development of the industry. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 6, 2021, pointing out the need to promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market, better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry. We believe that the factors that suppressed the valuation in the early stage have been gradually repaired, and the valuation of the furniture sector is expected to be repaired. In the short term, the worries about real estate are alleviated, and the industry is expected to usher in valuation repair opportunities; In the medium and long term, the demand growth potential of the furniture industry is large, and the furniture to the countryside policy is expected to promote the penetration and consumption upgrading of furniture in rural areas. The mattress category is expected to take the lead in benefiting from the furniture to the countryside policy, promote the accelerated promotion of independent brands and sink the leading [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ]; Meanwhile, [ Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) ], [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] and [Minhua holdings] are recommended. In terms of customization, we recommend [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ], [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] in combination with the proportion of bulk business income, accounts receivable risk and valuation level. We suggest paying attention to [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ], [ Jiangshan Oupai Door Industry Co.Ltd(603208) ] and [ Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) ].
E-cigarette: the industry is moving towards legalization and is optimistic about smore international. On November 10, 2021, the State Council approved the inclusion of e-cigarettes into the regulations on the administration of tobacco monopoly; On November 30, 2021, the national standard for e-cigarettes (Draft for comments) was issued; on December 2, 2021, the national tobacco administration disclosed the management measures for e-cigarettes (Draft for comments), marking that e-cigarettes have entered an era of legalization and compliance, and the formulation of relevant policies in the industry has been significantly accelerated. With the gradual improvement and implementation of various policies, the medium and long-term development prospects of the industry have been gradually confirmed and continue to be recommended [smore international]: early worries about the development of the Chinese market are expected to ease; Huabao international, which has a close relationship with China tobacco and has technical and product advantages; It is suggested that we should pay close attention to the close cooperation with China tobacco, and distribute the flavors and fragrances and evaluate the [ Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) ] with high price performance ratio. Enterprises with thick slurry flake production technology [ Anhui Genuine New Materials Co.Ltd(603429) ].
Risk tip: power rationing policy affects production capacity, raw material price fluctuations, intensified Sino US trade friction, weak downstream demand, etc. Note: except for special notes, all currencies in the full text are RMB
