Key investment points
In November, the wholesale sales volume was + 9% month on month, and the core shortage was improved month by month
In November, the wholesale sales volume of generalized passenger vehicles was 2.191 million, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9% and a month on month increase of 9.2%. Among them, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 429000, a year-on-year increase of 131.7% and a month on month increase of 17.9%; The wholesale sales volume of fuel passenger vehicles was 1.762 million, a year-on-year decrease of 16.5% and a month on month increase of 7.4%. Since September, the core shortage problem has improved month by month. The month on month growth rate of wholesale sales of passenger vehicles from September to November was 12.8%, 14.6% and 9.2%, and the month on month growth rate of wholesale sales of fuel passenger vehicles from September to November was 13.2%, 16.4% and 7.4%. At present, the inventory of dealers and OEMs is in a historical position. With the further improvement of chips, the wholesale sales of passenger cars are expected to continue to increase.
The wholesale of new energy exceeded 400000, with a penetration rate of 19.6%
In November, the wholesale sales volume of new energy vehicles reached a new high, reaching 429000, with a year-on-month increase of 131.7% / 17.9%. From the perspective of enterprises, there were 14 auto enterprises with wholesale sales of more than 10000 in November, of which the sales of Byd Company Limited(002594) / Tesla / Shangtong Wuling were 9.05/5.29/50100 vehicles respectively, and the sales of Geely / Great Wall Euler / GAC AIAN / SAIC passenger vehicles were 1.62/1.61/1.5/12200 vehicles respectively. Among the new forces, the sales volume of Xiaopeng / ideal / Weilai is 15613 / 13485 / 10878 respectively; The sales volume of second tier new forces Nezha / Weima is 10013 / 5027 respectively.
The industry pattern was reshaped, and the independent share of the head continued to increase
In November, the retail sales volume of narrow passenger cars was 1.816 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% and a month on month increase of 6%. In terms of structure, the retail sales volume of luxury brands was 210000, a year-on-year decrease of 19% and a month on month increase of 17%; Mainstream joint venture brands retail 780000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 23% and a month on month increase of 1%; The retail sales volume of independent brands was 830000, with a year-on-year increase of 2%, a month on month increase of 8%, and the market share reached 45.7%. Among them, the market share of head independent Great Wall, Geely and Byd Company Limited(002594) continued to increase, and the industry was reshaped in the era of electric intelligence. Due to the early layout of electric intelligence, independent brands will benefit more from the general trend of electric industry, and the market share will continue to increase.
investment strategy
We believe that the high prosperity of chip mitigation + new energy is still sustainable, and the industry is basically oriented. In the field of complete vehicles, considering the 21-year low base, delayed demand caused by lack of core, and the industry entering the replenishment cycle, it is expected that the growth rate of passenger vehicle wholesale sales in 2022 is expected to reach 10% - 15%. Structurally, we believe that the independent market share of new forces + Tesla + head is expected to continue to increase, with emphasis on Byd Company Limited(002594) , Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Xiao Peng, ideal and Wei Lai. In the field of parts and components, we are firmly optimistic about the big market of the rise of domestic parts and components. In the era of electric intelligence, the whole vehicle industry has been reshaped, and the speed of model iteration has accelerated, which has greatly improved the response service efficiency of vehicle enterprises to parts enterprises. Some relatively closed supply chains have ushered in the breaking of domestic substitution, and electric intelligence has also spawned a large number of value-added parts. By virtue of cost advantage, response speed and forward-looking layout, independent parts are expected to grow into an internationally competitive enterprise in the process of electric intelligence, focusing on Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) (Tesla's core supplier), Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) (passenger car seat), Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) (integrated die casting), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , and focusing on Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) .
Risk statement
The sales volume of passenger cars is lower than expected; The macro-economy is less than expected; Chip supply was less than expected.
