Key investment points
Home furnishing: the real estate environment underpins the tone, and the post cycle sector valuation is expected to be repaired
The central economic work conference mentioned promoting the sound development of real estate, and furniture to the countryside is expected to stimulate the vitality of the sinking market. From December 8 to 10, the central economic work conference pointed out that “support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies”, and the expectation of marginal easing of the real estate environment is strengthened. On December 8, the national development and Reform Commission proposed to implement the subsidy for furniture and home decoration to the countryside and a new round of automobile to the countryside. Referring to the last round of home appliances going to the countryside in 2008, We believe that: (1) the upgrading demand of township furniture will be released, such as the upgrading of hardwood beds to mattresses and wooden sofas to leather / cloth sofas. (2) with subsidies, rural consumers prefer to choose brand homes. Therefore, there are more low-level cities (such as Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) the first and second lines account for only 20-30%) and higher product cost performance (such as Gu Jia, Minhua, Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ) The brand leader of high cost-effective bedding) is relatively more beneficial. The highest pressure time point of the real estate chain is passing, and the valuation of the post cycle household sector is still at the bottom. We firmly recommend the layout of high-quality leaders Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) and Minhua holdings, focusing on the early reasons β Kill very cheap high-quality household assets under pressure, such as Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) , Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) .
This week Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) released the equity incentive plan: there are a wide range of participants, and the performance evaluation objectives are slightly higher than expected: the growth goal of the company in the next three years is 22-24 years, and the compound growth rate of revenue / profit in three years is no less than 25% / 30%. The higher profit growth rate will come from the increase in the proportion of the company’s independent brand retail business and the release of large-scale effect, with abundant growth momentum at the revenue end.
Tobacco: e-cigarette boots landing, standardized development, grasp high-quality supply chain assets
British American Tobacco released its annual forecast this week: the annual revenue is expected to grow by more than 5%, mainly due to the high growth of new tobacco business. (1) In 2021, the number of users of new tobacco products increased by 3.6 million to 17.1 million. (2) in terms of atomized tobacco, VUSE’s share in the world’s top five atomized tobacco consumption markets reached 34.1% (year-on-year + 6.9pct) as of September. (3) in terms of HNB, the company’s share in the world’s top nine HNB consumption markets reached 17.7% (year-on-year + 4.5pct).
China’s atomized smoke has entered a standardized growth stage. With the recent implementation of e-cigarette policy, the industry is about to bid farewell to the disorderly growth and enter the stage of healthy growth and long-term capacity expansion. The growth of leading brands at the channel / production end with standardized operation is more uncertain. We continue to recommend the long-term layout of high-quality supply chain companies with core technical barriers, Warburg international and smore international, and pay attention to Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) , Anhui Genuine New Materials Co.Ltd(603429) , Huabao Flavours & Fragrances Co.Ltd(300741) .
Others: nuggets are small and beautiful, focusing on the invisible champion of high diving track
Under the full background of big white horse mining, the investment value of some titles is prominent. Two lines are recommended: (1) for high-quality manufacturing assets with clear bottom profit signal and approaching inflection point, Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) (strong downstream demand for PVC flooring, outstanding R & D advantages of the company and continuous development of customers), Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) (production in the East and west of the United States is accelerated, and raw materials & sea freight is high and down), Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) (integration and efficiency improvement + cost compression, and overseas / Chinese operation is better); (2) Focus on the target of high potential downstream track, outstanding manufacturing strength and sustained high growth performance, and recommend Hhc Changzhou Corp(301061) (two growth tracks of downstream card function sofa + smart bed, vertical integrated supply chain + strong customer stickiness to ensure high profitability), Joy Kie Corporation Limited(300994) (bicycle ODM leader, electric bicycle & cross-border E-commerce to drive high growth), Shandong Yuma Sun-Shading Technology Corp.Ltd(300993) (China’s functional sunshade material leader, high-quality export manufacturing), Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) (outdoor sports equipment leader, vertical integration opens profit space).
Risk tip: the trade environment continues to deteriorate, the real estate regulation exceeds expectations, the increase of paper price is lower than expected, and the double control policy is intensified
