Core view
The expectation of “steady growth” is clear, and the infrastructure real estate policy or marginal easing. The central economic work conference clearly defined “steady growth”; It is required to promote the construction of indemnificatory housing and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry; It is required to carry out infrastructure investment moderately and ahead of schedule, so as to expand short-term demand and enhance long-term momentum.
Overseas supply and demand tended to balance, and steel exports fell for the first time year-on-year in November. The output of rebar decreased slightly by 0.9% month on month, and the consumption decreased significantly by 2.91% month on month, and the supply and demand pattern was improved. This week, the gross profit per ton of long and short process deformed steel increased significantly by 27.67% and 8.44% respectively.
The loading volume of new energy batteries increased rapidly, and the demand for lithium and cobalt was strong. In terms of lithium, the price of 56.5% domestic lithium hydroxide this week was 191000 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The price of domestic 99.5% battery grade lithium carbonate was 219500 yuan / ton, a significant increase of 4.52% month on month. This week, the month on month ratio of MB standard cobalt was flat, and the month on month ratio of cobalt trioxide increased significantly by 2.3%. In terms of nickel, the spot settlement price of LME nickel this week was US $19975 / ton, a slight decrease of 1.55% month on month.
Industrial metals: the sales penetration of new energy vehicles exceeded 20% in November, driving the increase of automobile aluminum consumption. In terms of industrial metals, the TC / RC of copper smelters decreased significantly this week, the global refined copper output and primary refined copper output increased significantly in August, and the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum remained high at 88% in October, with a significant decrease of 4.65 PCT; In terms of PMI, PMI in China and the United States increased month on month in November; In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased significantly month on month, and LME aluminum inventory increased significantly month on month; In terms of price, the current price of LME copper increased slightly by 0.32% month on month, and the current price of LME aluminum decreased slightly by 0.87% month on month; In terms of profits, the profits of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang, Shandong, Inner Mongolia and Yunnan decreased month on month this week.
Kim: the Federal Reserve may gradually reduce asset purchases from this month, and the price of precious metals continues to be under pressure. This week, Comex gold price decreased slightly by 0.04% month on month, and the number of non-commercial net long positions in gold decreased significantly by 3.84% month on month; This week, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bond was 1.48%, up slightly by 0.13pct month on month.
Investment proposal and investment object
Steel: for ordinary steel, it is recommended to pay attention to the listed companies with low carbon emission intensity and energy consumption per ton of steel on the one hand, and Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) (600019, not rated), Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) (600507, not rated), Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) (000932, buy), and the listed companies with low Pb on the other hand, such as Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) (600808, not rated), Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) (600782, not rated), Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) (000898, not rated) Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) (000825, not rated); For special steel, it is suggested to pay attention to special material suppliers of new energy nuclear power and wind power, such as Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) (002318, buy).
New energy metals: it is recommended to pay attention to enterprises rich in lithium resources such as Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (002460, not rated), Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) (002756, not rated), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) (000792, not rated).
Copper: it is suggested to pay attention to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (601899, buy) benefiting from the increase of smelting and processing fees and the price of sulfuric acid; And lithium battery copper foil manufacturers: Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) (688388, not rated), Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) (600110, not rated), etc.
Aluminum: it is recommended to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) (000807, not rated), Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) (601677, bought), and Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) (600219, not rated), Shanghai Huafon Aluminium Corporation(601702) (601702, bought) of high-end aluminum enterprises.
Jin: it is suggested to pay attention to industry leaders Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (601899, buy), Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) (600547, not rated), Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) (000603, not rated), etc.
Risk statement
Macroeconomic growth slowed down; Price fluctuation of raw materials.
