The turning point of pessimistic expectation has arrived, and we are optimistic about real estate related chemical products. Recently, the central economic work conference was held. Next year, the keynote of economic work is "taking the lead in stability and seeking progress in stability". In terms of real estate, the meeting stressed that under the positioning of adhering to the principle of housing, housing and non speculation, we should accelerate the development of the long-term rental housing market, promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and "implement policies for the city" to promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry. At the industry level, we believe that the turning point of pessimistic expectation for the real estate industry has come, and we are optimistic about the varieties of real estate related chemicals.
1) MDI: in December Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) China's aggregated MDI market, the listing price was 21500 yuan / ton (1500 yuan / ton lower than the price in November), and the off-season correction was in line with expectations. Overseas MDI devices are generally old, and the power and supply chain system are fragile. Under the influence of extreme weather, epidemic and other factors, the probability of force majeure of overseas devices still exists, and MDI exports are expected to continue to grow at a high rate. Green low-carbon building materials, including polyurethane building insulation materials and polyurethane composite energy-saving doors and windows, are expected to bring incremental space for polyurethane demand. At the same time, furniture home decoration to the countryside is expected to stimulate terminal demand.
2) Soda ash: according to Baichuan Yingfu, the average market price of heavy soda ash was 3118 yuan / ton as of December 10, The higher point fell by 563 yuan / ton (- 15.29%). In the future, the new capacity of soda ash will be tightened and the increment will be limited. Next year, the completion end of the real estate is expected to maintain positive growth. Under the increasing downward pressure of the economy, in order to achieve the goal of "taking the lead in stability and making progress while maintaining stability", the real estate policy is expected to continue to be marginal loose. In the real estate industry, it is expected to "ensure delivery" Under the current situation, demand is expected to continue to release and demand resilience is expected to be maintained. At the same time, the photovoltaic industry is growing rapidly, and there is a strong demand for photovoltaic glass.
3) PVC: according to Baichuan Yingfu, the average market price of calcium carbide PVC in China in November was 9206 yuan / ton, down 26.47% from 12520 yuan / ton in October. It is mainly due to the weak operation of crude oil and the demand enters the off-season. For consumer building materials, the overall reduction of reserve requirements has been implemented, the expectation of steady growth has been strengthened, and the end of real estate policy has been achieved; Recently, the financing end of the real estate industry has improved significantly, and the pessimistic expectation of the real estate chain is expected to continue to repair. With the price of raw materials such as calcium carbide falling down, we judge that the profitability of PVC pipes and profiles is expected to gradually improve, and the industry is gradually entering the layout time point.
4) Viscose staple fiber: in November, the viscose staple fiber market entered a downward channel, the cost side support gradually weakened, and the supply side industry started to improve. Next year, there will be no new capacity release in the industry, the growth rate at the completion end is expected to be transmitted to textile and clothing home, and the demand of the garment industry is expected to be gradually repaired, driving the bottom recovery of product prices.
5) Polyester filament: the downstream is prepared in advance before the Spring Festival, and the filament price is expected to increase. The profits of the industrial chain are expected to be transmitted from the upstream to the filament, and the profits will continue to transfer to the filament link with large differentiation and consumption attributes. The filament pattern continues to improve, the production capacity concentration continues to improve, the industry oligarchy pattern accelerates, and the bargaining power of leading enterprises will continue to strengthen.
It is suggested to pay attention to: leading chemical enterprises in the post real estate cycle Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinjiang Zhongtai Chenical Co.Ltd(002092) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) , Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) , etc.
Risk tips: the prices of raw materials and products fluctuate sharply, the terminal demand is less than expected, the global epidemic situation is repeated, etc.
