2021.12. 6-2021.12. 12: The overall market performance this week was good, but the power equipment and new energy sectors were poor. Among them, the CSI 300 index rose 3.14% to close at 5055.12, with a turnover of 1.79 trillion yuan. Over the same period, the power equipment and new energy industry decreased by 1.56% to 14458.17, with a turnover of 0.65 trillion yuan. In the secondary industry of electrical equipment, electrical equipment performed poorly, down 1.04%, and power equipment performed well, up 2.59%; Among the tertiary fine molecule industries, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) industry performed well, with an increase of 4.47%, while the power electronics and automation industry increased by 0.60%.
Core view
Photovoltaic: the price of silicon material is loose, and the new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption are not included in the total energy consumption control. According to the statistics of silicon industry branch and pvinfolink, the price of silicon material decreased this week after stabilizing at a sustained high level; On silicon wafers, the price decline expanded this week because of the weak terminal demand and the major silicon wafer manufacturers are also in the state of reducing prices and clearing inventory; On the battery chip, the price also showed a downward trend due to the lower price of upstream silicon chip, insufficient orders from component manufacturers in December, and the lower repair operation rate suppressed inventory; In terms of group price, under the price reduction signal of the supply chain, the terminal is in a wait-and-see state, the demand for group price is low, and the shipment is reduced. It is expected that the market will show a clear trend after the further reduction of silicon material, and stimulate the terminal demand. “Double control” of energy consumption moves towards “double control” of total carbon emission and intensity. From December 8 to 10, 2021, the central economic work conference held in Beijing made it clear that the new renewable energy and raw material energy will not be included in the total energy consumption control, and created conditions to realize the transformation from “double control” of energy consumption to “double control” of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible. The meeting called for a correct understanding and grasp of carbon peak and carbon neutralization. The gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy. Based on the basic national conditions of coal, we should pay attention to the clean and efficient utilization of coal, increase the consumption capacity of new energy, and promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy. We should pay close attention to tackling key problems of green and low-carbon technology. It is necessary to conduct scientific assessment, exclude the new renewable energy and raw material energy from the total energy consumption control, create conditions to realize the transformation from “double control” of energy consumption to “double control” of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible, accelerate the formation of an incentive and restraint mechanism for reducing pollution and carbon, and prevent simple layer by layer decomposition. To ensure energy supply, large enterprises, especially state-owned enterprises, should take the lead in ensuring supply and stable prices. We should further promote the energy revolution and accelerate the construction of an energy power. The restrictions of photovoltaic on the raw material side have also been obtained accordingly, and the growth of the industry is firm again. The national development and Reform Commission issued another document to support wind and scenery, pointing out that the use of renewable energy such as wind energy and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) is encouraged, and the use level of green electric energy in the data center is improved through self built special lines or bilateral transactions, so as to promote the nearby consumption of renewable energy.
Wind power: the replacement of old wind turbines in phase II of Fengguang large base is expected to improve the prosperity of Fengguang industrial chain. The national energy administration plans to organize the second batch of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas, Request approved (filing) and can start construction in 2022. In principle, it can be completed and connected to the grid in 2023; adhere to intensive integrated development to avoid fragmentation, and the scale of single project is not less than 1GW; encourage the construction of centralized and shared energy storage to maximize the benefits of energy storage. The demand for replacement of old wind turbines is supported again, and the National Energy Administration solicits opinions on the transformation, upgrading and decommissioning of wind farms Carry out transformation, upgrading and decommissioning of wind farms that have been connected to the grid for more than 15 years; Transformation and upgrading projects with an operation period of less than 20 years and the cumulative power generation does not exceed the subsidized power of the whole life cycle of the project before transformation can enjoy the subsidy funds of the central government in accordance with relevant regulations.
Industrial control: the increase of PPI fell, and the effect of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price appeared. In November 2021, PPI increased by 12.9% year-on-year, with an increase rate of 0.6 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, and the month on month increase was flat, with an increase rate of 2.5 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. According to the calculation of the National Bureau of statistics, in the year-on-year increase of 12.9% in November, the tail warping impact of price changes last year was about 1.2 percentage points, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points over the previous month; The impact of the new price increase was about 11.7 percentage points, the same as last month. In November, the growth of major industries continued to rise, and the coal industry performed prominently, with the price rising by 103.7%, an increase of 28.8 percentage points. The effect of the overall policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price has been obvious, the prices of coal, metal and other industries have been effectively controlled, and the market supply has increased steadily.
Investment proposal and investment object
The photovoltaic sector recommends Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (601012, buy), Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) (600438, buy), Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (002459, buy), Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) (688680, buy), Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) (603806, buy). It is recommended to pay attention to Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) (688599, not rated); The wind power sector recommends Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) (300850, buy), Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) (603218, overweight). It is recommended to pay attention to Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) (002531, Unrated), Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) (002487, Unrated), Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) (603985, Unrated), Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) (603606, Unrated).
Risk statement
The growth of photovoltaic industry is less than expected; The growth of wind power industry is less than expected; The industrial control industry grew less than expected.
