This week’s view: power coal: in terms of supply, supply guarantee has been continuously promoted recently. Except for a few inverted working faces and maintenance affecting production, the overall supply of coal mines is good. In terms of demand, as of December 7, the inventory of power plants in eight coastal provinces was 35.95 million tons, up 6.9% on a weekly basis; The daily consumption was 2 million tons, with a weekly increase of 5.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%. After the guarantee of supply and the transportation of Changxie coal, the inventory of the power plant has been made up to a historical high. Although the daily consumption has increased compared with last week, due to the high number of days available for inventory, the procurement rhythm of the power plant has slowed down significantly recently. On the whole, the coal mines in the producing areas have relatively loose supply, average shipments, and the decline in coal prices has increased. Under the supply guarantee policy, the inventory of power plants has increased rapidly, but the expectation of cold winter has failed, the daily consumption is lower than expected, and the procurement demand of power plants is weak. In addition, some civil demand has begun to decline. Under the mentality of buying up but not buying down, platform traders dare not purchase in large quantities. At present, only some rigid demand is difficult to boost the current market, It is expected that the short-term coal price may be weak. In the later stage, we will pay attention to the impact of policies, weather changes and epidemic situation. Coking coal: in terms of supply, coal mines in producing areas continued to reduce production. Considering safety production, coking coal supply is still expected to tighten in December. In terms of demand, the inventory of coking plant decreased year-on-year and the demand increased. On the whole, with winter storage and replenishment on the agenda and supply tightening expectations, the coking coal market has basically bottomed out. It is expected that the short-term coking coal price is expected to operate stably. Coke: in terms of supply, the operating rate of coking plant increased slightly year-on-year. In terms of demand, the operating rate of blast furnace continued to fall slightly, the coke inventory of steel mills and ports increased, and the coke inventory of coking plants decreased. Overall, the fundamentals of the coke market have improved slightly, but considering that the current supply is still tight and the demand side is relatively weak, it is expected that the short-term coke price may operate stably.
1. Thermal coal: the price of thermal coal in Chinese ports operated smoothly this week. On December 10, the latest transaction price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port was 942 yuan / ton, the same as last Friday; In terms of origin price, on December 10, the plate price of 5500 large trucks in the southern suburb of Datong, Shanxi Province was 904 yuan / ton, down 81 yuan / ton from last Friday; On December 10, the inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 4.87 million tons, down 430000 tons from last Friday. In terms of demand, as of December 7, the inventory of power plants in eight coastal provinces was 35.95 million tons, up 6.9% on a weekly basis; The daily consumption was 2 million tons, with a weekly increase of 5.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%. After the guarantee of supply and the transportation of Changxie coal, the inventory of the power plant has been made up to a historical high. Although the daily consumption has increased compared with last week, due to the high number of days available for inventory, the procurement rhythm of the power plant has slowed down significantly recently. In terms of inventory, the inventory of Qinhuangdao port on December 10 was 4.87 million tons, down 430000 tons from last Friday. In terms of supply, recently, the guarantee of supply has been continuously promoted. Except for a few inverted working faces and maintenance affecting production, the overall supply of coal mines is good. In terms of import, as of December 10, Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) Australian coal q5500 warehouse raised the price by 1355 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton from last Friday; Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) the price of Indonesian coal q5500 warehouse increased by 1355 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton from last Friday. On the whole, in terms of supply, the guarantee of supply has been continuously promoted recently. Except for a few inverted working faces and maintenance affecting production, the overall supply of coal mines is good. In terms of demand, as of December 7, the inventory of power plants in eight coastal provinces was 35.95 million tons, up 6.9% on a weekly basis; The daily consumption was 2 million tons, with a weekly increase of 5.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%. After the guarantee of supply and the transportation of Changxie coal, the inventory of the power plant has been made up to a historical high. Although the daily consumption has increased compared with last week, due to the high number of days available for inventory, the procurement rhythm of the power plant has slowed down significantly recently. On the whole, the coal mines in the producing areas have relatively loose supply, average shipments, and the decline in coal prices has increased. Under the supply guarantee policy, the inventory of power plants has increased rapidly, but the expectation of cold winter has failed, the daily consumption is lower than expected, and the procurement demand of power plants is weak. In addition, some civil demand has begun to decline. Under the mentality of buying up but not buying down, platform traders dare not purchase in large quantities. At present, only some rigid demand is difficult to boost the current market, It is expected that the short-term coal price may be weak. In the later stage, we will pay attention to the impact of policies, weather changes and epidemic situation.
2. Coking coal: the price of main coking coal in Jingtang Port this week was 2350 yuan / ton, unchanged from last Friday. The coking coal market operated smoothly this week. In terms of demand, the comprehensive operating rate of coking plant this week was 61.58%, up 1.34% from last Friday. In terms of inventory, in absolute terms, the coking coal inventory of 100 sample coking plants in China this week totaled 5.9227 million tons, an increase of 24000 tons over last Friday; In terms of relative quantity, the average available days of coking coal storage in coking plant are 15.15 days, down 0.33 days from last Friday. In terms of supply, coal mines in the producing area continued to reduce production. Considering safety production, coking coal supply is still expected to tighten in December. Overall, in terms of supply, coal mines in producing areas continued to reduce production. Considering safety production, coking coal supply is still expected to tighten in December. In terms of demand, the inventory of coking plant decreased year-on-year and the demand increased. On the whole, with winter storage and replenishment on the agenda and supply tightening expectations, the coking coal market has basically bottomed out. It is expected that the short-term coking coal price is expected to operate stably.
3. Coke: the closing price of Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) primary coke this week was 2680 yuan / ton, the same as last Friday; The factory price of Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke was 2560 yuan / ton, unchanged from last Friday. The coke market operated smoothly this week. In terms of demand, the national blast furnace operating rate was 46.69%, down 1.10% from last Friday. In terms of inventory, the coke inventory of 110 Chinese sample steel mills this week totaled 4.1653 million tons, an increase of 88100 tons over last Friday. The coke inventory of 100 independent coking plants in China totaled 464100 tons, down 137100 tons from last Friday. The total port inventory was 1.471 million tons, an increase of 105000 tons over last Friday. In terms of supply, the comprehensive operating rate of the coking plant this week was 61.58%, up 1.34% from last Friday. Overall, in terms of supply, the operating rate of coking plant increased slightly year-on-year. In terms of demand, the operating rate of blast furnace continued to fall slightly, the coke inventory of steel mills and ports increased, and the coke inventory of coking plants decreased. Overall, the fundamentals of the coke market have improved slightly, but considering that the current supply is still tight and the demand side is relatively weak, it is expected that the short-term coke price may operate stably.
Risk tips: the macro economy has fallen sharply, the coal price has fallen sharply, the coke production limit is less than expected, the coal price has been regulated by policy, a large number of new production capacity has been released, the policy of imported coal has been tightened, and the coal management ticket in Yulin has been released
