The waste power battery recycling market will usher in considerable development: it is expected that the global battery echelon utilization market space will exceed 100 billion in 2030. If the metal salt of recycled products is measured by the steady state of supply and demand (lithium carbonate, nickel sulfate / cobalt / manganese) price. Considering the recovery rate of 90%, the global market space for battery recovery and regeneration will also reach 100 billion yuan in 2030. According to the school of environment of Tsinghua University, dismantling one ton of 811 and 622 ternary batteries can recover 89.8/67.7kg nickel, 11.2/22.6kg cobalt, 10.5/22.5kg manganese and 13.3/13.3kg lithium. In 2021, when the price of energy metals is high, battery recovery will be in line The industry undoubtedly contains huge profits. However, it should be noted that it is difficult for the battery disassembly and recycling industry to dilute the cost through the release of scale effect. The reason is that there is no reliable channel for the procurement source of waste batteries. Once the production capacity is idle, it will suffer a loss, and the limited production capacity also makes the enterprise passive in bargaining with downstream precursor customers. At this time, variable cost control including raw materials is particularly important. It is very important to grasp a controllable way to obtain waste battery resources. In this regard, Guangdong Bangpu recycling technology is bound with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) equity to create an industrial closed loop of "production use echelon utilization recycling", which has advantages in raw materials. If many enterprises can not form a binding with the host factory or battery factory, forming a reliable industrial alliance is also a better way to ensure the safety of the supply of waste battery resources. In addition, how to concentrate the recycling of retired batteries from consumers is also an issue that needs to be discussed. In the face of the "high price" situation of waste batteries, we believe that on the one hand, we should strengthen the qualification examination of battery recycling enterprises, on the other hand, 4S stores should give economic compensation to consumers who sell waste batteries to mobilize their enthusiasm, Then the waste batteries collected by dealers are stored and transported to recycling enterprises. This is also in line with the main idea of the management measures for the recycling of power batteries of new energy vehicles, and implements the extension of responsibility of automobile manufacturers.
Investment perspective: we believe that the investment story in 2022 will focus on the word "growth". In this process, the "shortage" of some links is still the key word of investment. First of all, we are optimistic about the profit recovery of battery enterprises under the downward pressure of raw material price and the action of product price rise game. We are also optimistic about the shortage of lithium resources, cathode, diaphragm and copper foil, and the resulting price elasticity. We suggest paying attention to Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) (300035. SZ), Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) (002497. SZ), Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) (300568. SZ), Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (603659. SH), and Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) (002245. SZ).
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; Price fluctuation of raw materials
