Monthly view: layout pig cycle “when it is warm and cold”
In November 2021, according to the data of the national development and Reform Commission, the national average sales price of pigs was 17.88 yuan / kg, an increase of 24.84% month on month. By the end of November, the average selling price of live pigs was 18.67 yuan / kg, the average selling price of pig feed was 3.30 yuan / kg, the specific price of pig feed was 5.66, the specific price balance point of pig feed was 4.89, the corresponding industry unit breeding cost (full cost, average weight 110kg / head) was 16.27 yuan / kg, and the average profit per head was 265 yuan / head.
The pig price is “warm at first, but cold at first”, and the disturbance factors of the capacity removal trend are weakened. According to the data of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the number of fertile sows in the industry decreased by 2.5% month on month in October. In November, the number of fertile sows in the monitoring samples of the Ministry of agriculture will still maintain a significant month on month decrease, which is expected to be 1.0-1.5%. The stock index of fertile sows of the Ministry of agriculture will fall in the range of 88.3-87.9, equivalent to 91.5% – 91.9% at the end of 2017. Based on the obvious mismatch between supply and demand in 2022h1 industry, we believe that the pig price will fall below the industry cost line again in January 2022, and the industry will fall into a loss again, driving the obvious acceleration of the elimination of inferior production capacity. We believe that from June to July 2022, the cumulative removal rate of industrial capacity will reach more than 15% compared with the high level from May to June 2021, which is expected to support the price reversal of a new round of pig cycle.
In November, the number of listed pig enterprises increased by 30.8% year-on-year and decreased by 22.7% month on month
The sales data of pig breeding enterprises in November were released. Overall, in November, the average selling price of commercial pigs of all enterprises ranged from 14.9 to 17.2 yuan / kg, with a year-on-year increase of about 37%. The average sales price of each company fluctuated month on month, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) the average price of fat pigs in November was 16.0/17.2/15.5/14.9/16.0 yuan / kg respectively, with a month on month change of + 34.3% / + 45.8% / + 36.3% / + 39.4% / + 28.4% respectively. In terms of the slaughter weight in November, the average slaughter weight of the main five enterprises announced that, except that the average slaughter weight of Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) finishing pigs increased month on month, the average slaughter weight of four finishing pigs decreased month on month, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) November commercial pigs were 117.6/100.7/122.4/120.0/118.0kg/head, with a month on month change of + 1.7 / – 9.0 / – 6.2 / – 0.8 / – 1.5 respectively.Kg / head, The average weight of Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) and Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) pigs decreased significantly.
In November, the number of listed pig enterprises increased by 30.8% year-on-year and decreased by 22.7% month on month
In November 2021, the listing volume of 10 major listed companies was 8.74 million, with a year-on-year increase of 30.8% and a month on month decrease of 22.7%. Among them, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) listing volume and month on month variation range are 3.874 million / – 26.3%, 1.004 million / – 21.7%, 904000 / – 24.1%, 1.196 million / – 34.3%, 566000 / + 5.6%, 123000 / – 32.0%, 411000 / + 11.8%, 94000 / – 45.5% and 454000 / + 0.6% respectively.
Benefiting from the rising pig price, the sales revenue of pig enterprises was relatively stable month on month in November
In November 2021, the sales revenue of listed pig breeding enterprises varied month on month. Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) achieved sales revenue of 67.7/24.2/15.3/13.5/1 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 33.3% / – 27.6% / – 57.6% / – 64.8% / + 8.3% and a month-on-month increase of – 4.7% / – 2.8% / + 15.2% / – 6.0% / + 26.8%. Specifically, benefiting from the month on month rise in the average selling price of pigs, even if the monthly slaughter volume shrinks month on month, the overall sales revenue of listed enterprises will remain relatively stable month on month.
Risk tip: the prosperity of pig price is lower than expected, and the decline of breeding cost of listed companies is lower than expected.
