The central economic conference has ended, the curtain of steady growth has opened, and the steady growth and counter cyclical regulation and control policies will be vigorously and appropriately advanced. In the first quarter of next year, credit social finance is expected to make a good start, and the possibility of interest rate reduction is rising. The overall risk of real estate slows down and the capital market scene continues to improve, which is a highly favorable external environment for financial stocks. Therefore, we judge that “financial stocks have reached an important investment opportunity”!
Securities companies: securities companies are the core beneficiary carrier of the comprehensive registration system
The central economic work conference clearly proposed to “fully implement the stock issuance registration system”, and it is expected that the registration system of Shanghai and Shenzhen main board can be implemented in 2022. Previously, the opening of the science and innovation board in July 19, the landing of the gem registration system in August 20, the merger of the Shenzhen main board and the small and medium-sized board in February 21, and the formal operation of the Beijing stock exchange last month have laid a solid foundation for the comprehensive registration system. The registration system is an important link in the high-quality development of multi-level capital market and the implementation of innovation driven development strategy. On the evening of the 10th, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have simultaneously solicited opinions on the new stock listing rules, and strive to build a concise, clear and friendly self regulatory rule system. We believe that securities companies are the core carrier of the capital market and benefit most from the comprehensive promotion of the registration system. 1) With the emergence of IPO business increment, investment banking needs more capital strength, sales ability and pricing ability. It is expected that the concentration of business resources will be further improved. As the flow inlet of institutional business, investment banking will promote the strength of institutional business; 2) The supply side dividend continues to be released. It is expected that the transfer of residents’ asset allocation to equity assets will be accelerated, the securities companies deeply engaged in the equity fund industry chain will further cultivate advantages, and the wealth management + asset management business will promote the improvement of profitability and robustness. Individual stocks recommend Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , and it is recommended to pay attention to China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) H.
Venture capital: the venture capital industry is a sub industry in which the mid-range bearing of the financial industry is improving
The working meeting clearly mentioned the need to enhance the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, start a number of industrial infrastructure reconstruction projects, and stimulate the emergence of a large number of “specialized and new” enterprises. We believe that the current direction of key policy support in the financial industry is to provide direct financing for “specialized, special and new” new economic enterprises. As an important direct financing channel for “specialized, special and new” enterprises, venture capital institutions will benefit significantly. At the same time, recently, the venture capital industry has ushered in a number of favorable policies, which directly hit the pain points of fund-raising and exit, such as the establishment of the Beijing stock exchange, the opening of PE / VC share transfer pilot projects in Beijing and Shanghai, and encouraging banks and insurance funds to invest in venture capital funds, reflecting the strong support for the venture capital industry. We believe that the venture capital industry is a sub industry in which the mid-range bearing of the financial industry is improving. Individual stocks recommended Sichuan Shuangma Cement Co.Ltd(000935) (jointly covered with the building materials group) and Everbright Holdings.
Bank: the big market in the banking sector may open
The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held next year. The economic, political and social environment requires “stability first and progress in stability”. Under the triple pressure of “shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation”, the central economic work conference Revisited “counter cyclical regulation” every two years, requiring that “cross cyclical and counter cyclical regulation policies should be organically combined”, and the signal of policy underpinning is particularly strong. It can be expected that the intensity of fiscal expenditure will be faster and stronger next year. Especially in the first half of next year, fiscal power and infrastructure overweight are expected to be further strengthened. The policy underpinning is good for the banking industry in two ways: first, the wide credit in structure and time interval is good for the scale expansion of banks. Special monetary policies are expected to be launched in the three sub directions of small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development. Second, credit risk mitigation, the bank obtains the implicit disclosure of policies, and the overall risk exposure is controllable. The meeting proposed “implementing policies according to the city”, “implementing policies according to classification” and “accurate bomb dismantlement”. Regulatory means are expected to be more flexible and accurate. Credit repair in the real estate sector will help to achieve a soft landing of risk events. Optimistic about the three catalysts for the future plate: first, the risk suppression factors are lifted, and the plate rebounds from the undervalued value. Second, the broad credit market started. Third, driven by refinancing, banks will have a stronger demand for market value management. Individual stocks recommend China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(600908) .
Risk tip: the downward pressure on the economy is higher than expected; The strength of steady growth policy is lower than expected; The progress of policy promotion is less than expected; The capital market fluctuated sharply.
