The central economic work conference set the thinking of double carbon work next year and scientifically assessed the consumption of renewable energy, which is expected to accelerate the increase of new energy. Maintain the industry stronger than the market rating.
The central economic work conference requires a correct understanding and grasp of carbon peak and carbon neutralization: the central economic work conference was held in Beijing from December 8 to 10 to summarize the economic work in 2021, analyze the current economic situation and deploy the economic work in 2022. The meeting pointed out that we should correctly understand and grasp the carbon peak and carbon neutralization.
Scientific assessment of renewable energy consumption: the meeting pointed out that achieving carbon peak and carbon neutralization is an inherent requirement for promoting high-quality development, which should be unswervingly promoted. The gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy. Based on the basic national conditions of coal, we should increase the consumption capacity of new energy and promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy. It is necessary to conduct scientific assessment, exclude the new renewable energy and raw material energy from the total energy consumption control, and create conditions to realize the transformation from “double control” of energy consumption to “double control” of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible.
The idea of safe carbon reduction remains unchanged and is expected to accelerate the increase of renewable energy: the expression of double carbon work at the meeting is in line with the previous idea. The action plan for carbon peak before 2030 points out that we should strive for time to realize the gradual substitution of new energy, promote the smooth transition of low-carbon energy transformation, ensure safe carbon reduction, and avoid one size fits all power and production restriction or sports carbon reduction. On October 8, the executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that promoting new renewable energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption within a certain period of time. This time, it is mentioned that the new renewable energy is not included in the total energy consumption control. It is expected that the implementation method of the assessment may be specified in the subsequent detailed rules. If the renewable energy consumption is not included or not fully included in the assessment, it is expected to further improve the proportion of new energy power utilization, superimpose the “double control” and gradually guide carbon emission, which is expected to accelerate the installation of new renewable energy power generation.
The price of the photovoltaic industry chain is loose, and the supply-demand game is coming to an end: Recently, the prices of photovoltaic silicon wafers and silicon materials have been loosened successively, the photovoltaic industry chain is expected to enter the price reduction channel, the deadlock of the supply-demand game is expected to be alleviated, and the demand potential is expected to be gradually released. We expect that the global PV installed demand will be about 220gw and 270gw respectively from 2022 to 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 40% and 23% respectively, and the corresponding PV module demand will be about 254gw and 313gw respectively.
The inflection point of wind power installation demand is ahead of schedule, and China’s installed capacity is expected to grow rapidly: under the circumstances that the price of wind turbines is falling faster than expected and the economy of onshore wind power is fully demonstrated, the new bidding volume of wind farms in China in the current quarter continues to maintain a high level, guiding China’s onshore wind power installation to recover in advance. If the quarterly bidding volume continues to be high, it is expected to guide the growth of subsequent installed capacity demand, The economic acceleration of offshore wind power is expected to further increase the demand in the middle and late stage of the 14th five year plan; We estimate that from 2022 to 2023, the installed capacity of new wind power in China will be about 53gw and 72gw respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 33% and 36% respectively. Under the expectation of good demand, the price competition of fan is expected to ease to a certain extent.
Investment suggestion: the central economic work conference will set the tone for double carbon work, scientifically assess the consumption of renewable energy, which is expected to accelerate the increase of new energy, and there is no worry about the medium-term space for new energy power generation. In terms of photovoltaic, the game of supply and demand in the industrial chain is coming to an end, but there is still the possibility of phased supply shortage. After the short board of supply in some subsequent links is improved, the terminal demand is expected to be fully released. The asset light subdivision direction is preferred to meet the challenges of the production capacity cycle, and the localization of hjt equipment and battery industrialization are promoted rapidly. In terms of wind power, the falling price of wind turbines significantly stimulates potential demand. The inflection point of China’s onshore wind power installation boom is ahead of schedule, and the demand for offshore wind power may be accelerated. The price competition of wind turbines is expected to ease, and the loose price of bulk raw materials is expected to thicken the profits of the midstream manufacturing industry. Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) are recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to Levima Advanced Materials Corporation(003022) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Sunoren Solar Technology Co.Ltd(603105) , {60368868}, Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) , Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , {603606.
Risk warning: price competition exceeds expectations; Adverse fluctuations in raw material prices; Power and production restrictions exceed expectations; New energy policy risk; International trade friction risk; Technical iteration risk; Risk absorption; The cost performance of hjt battery does not meet expectations; Large scale cost reduction does not meet expectations; The impact of covid-19 epidemic exceeded expectations.
