According to the data of the national business information center of China, in November 2021, the retail sales of 50 key large retail enterprises in China decreased by 11.4% year-on-year, and the decline increased by 3.7pct month on month compared with October, of which the clothing category decreased by double digits year-on-year.
At present, we mainly recommend three main lines:
(1) Recommendation of growing varieties: 1) recommend Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) for the subject with extended store space; 2) high view racetrack: the epidemic superposition and double reduction policy drives the hot demand for camping and benefits tent sales, and recommend Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) ; 3) recommend Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) and Bosideng, and benefit the subject: Shenzhou International;
(2) Varieties of performance inflection points: 1) pay attention to the stocks damaged by the epidemic situation: recommend Zhejiang Jasan Holding Group Co.Ltd(603558) , Anhui Korrun Co.Ltd(300577) ; 2) Jiangsu Hongdou Industrial Co.Ltd(600400) cooperate with Junzhi consulting. It is in the investment period this year and next year. The business is expected to be transformed and improved in the future. Pay attention to Jiangsu Hongdou Industrial Co.Ltd(600400) and the benefit targets Zhejiang Aokang Shoes Co.Ltd(603001) , Joeone Co.Ltd(601566) ;
(3) Recommended undervalued value of value varieties + Shenzhen Fuanna Bedding And Furnishing Co.Ltd(002327) with high dividend yield.
Market review: outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.73%
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.63%, the gem index fell 0.34%, and the SW textile and garment sector rose 2.36%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.73pct and the gem index by 2.7pct. Among them, SW clothing and home textile increased by 2.84%, and SW textile manufacturing increased by 0.08%. At present, the 22pe of SW textile and garment industry is 16.09x. This week, e-commerce performed best, with an increase of 4.92%; Leisure performance was the worst, down 0.72%.
Market data tracking: China Cotton 328 fell 0.76%
As of December 10, China’s cotton 328 index was 21883 yuan / ton, down 0.76% this week, China’s imported cotton price index (1% tariff) was 19297 yuan / ton, up 2.77% this week. As of December 9, cotlooka index (1% tariff) the closing price was 18743 yuan / ton, up 2.98% this week. We analyzed that the rise of foreign cotton was mainly due to USDA’s report on reducing cotton production in Pakistan in December, the recovery of Southeast Asia and increasing cotton demand in Vietnam and Turkey. On the whole, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton this week was 2586 yuan / ton, down 687 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.
As of December 2, the composite index of the Eastern market of Australian Wool Exchange was 1346 Australian cents / kg, equivalent to 61470 yuan / ton (1 Australian Dollar = 4.6296 yuan), up 0.4% from 1341 Australian cents / kg on November 25.
In the balance sheet of China’s cotton supply and demand released by USDA in December, China’s total cotton output in 2021 / 2022 is expected to be 5.824 million tons, unchanged month on month; Consumer demand is expected to be 8.709 million tons, unchanged month on month; The ending inventory is expected to be 7.882 million tons, down 54000 tons month on month.
In October 2021, the export volume of oil tarpaulin, canopy and sunshade was 2.365 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.14%, an increase of 27.58 PCT compared with September.
Risk statement
Second outbreak of the epidemic; Fluctuation risk of raw materials; Systemic risk.
