Summary of this issue:
Baijiu: this week, the central bank's drop in the scale and the development of COVID-19 specific drugs have lifted consumer confidence. Moutai shares have returned to 2000 yuan, Baijiu plate sentiment is high, high-end liquor and regional famous liquor are buoyed up this round. According to channel feedback, the unpacking policy has been completely abolished in Maotai recently to further promote the marketization of Maotai liquor price, respect the market and consumer demand, and improve the contradiction between supply and demand. We believe that the recent price fluctuations of Maotai reflect the company's positive control effect on Maotai's wholesale price, the risk of political public opinion has decreased, and the market's expectation of Maotai's price increase has been enhanced. At present, it has entered the centralized payment period at the end of the year. From the perspective of the whole year, the manufacturers' payment requirements for dealers show a trend of accelerating the pace. Most of the first quarter targeted 30-40% to anchor the good start performance in advance, so as to provide support for the completion of the tasks of the whole year. We are still optimistic about the national sub high-end enterprises such as shede, drunkard and Fenjiu, which have a better competitive environment, high certainty in the completion of annual goals and have certain elasticity than expected.
Snack food sector: the performance of the sector rose this week. Gan yuan performed strongly this week. Basically, the market share of green beans, broad beans and melon seed kernel is still low. With the gradual production of Anyang factory and the formation of a product matrix with new products, the channel expansion and sinking are expected to accelerate. In the past, the pain point of the company's channels was that the volume of green beans, broad beans, melon seeds and other categories was small, which had limited attraction to high-quality dealers. With the launch of new products, it is expected that the pace and quality of investment attraction are expected to improve. Flavor nuts comply with the development trend of the industry, and the matching channels are expected to gradually increase. This year, due to the risk of rising prices of raw materials, the profitability has been diluted. Next year, new products will be gradually superimposed in large quantities, channel expansion will accelerate, and rapid growth can be expected. The Luwei track is still hot. Since Zhou Heiya opened the franchise at the end of 2019, the franchise stores have expanded steadily. According to the expansion rate of 800-1000 stores per year, the number of "direct + franchise" stores is expected to reach 4000-5000 in 2023. With the help of high brand potential, Zhou Heiya is expected to return to rapid growth.
Condiments and frozen food: stimulated by macro policies such as lowering the reserve requirement this week, consumer stocks performed strongly. Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) in December, the company raised the price in the overseas market by 10-20%. The price of small packaging yeast and microbial nutrition may still rise in the future. The ton price of molasses has dropped from 1700 yuan, and the current purchase ton price is more than 1400 yuan. The price of molasses per ton is more than 1300 yuan, which can curb the demand of alcohol factories. We expect that the purchase price of angel molasses per ton is expected to be reduced to 1300-1400 yuan. Considering that the contribution of product price increase to the revenue in 22 years is 15-20%, and the growth of superposition, we expect that the revenue growth of angel in 22 years is expected to reach more than 20%. Since November, Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) has focused on promoting the C terminal construction of prefabricated dishes around Kwai Chi's special cabinet. Anjoy dealers increase the terminal ice chest, and strengthen the market competition of Kwai Pao. Kwai Chi has been included in the new product assessment. All sales teams of Anjoy are vigorously developing terminal marketing activities to form a strong brand pull.
Industry investment strategy: Baijiu plate, we first push the high-end Baijiu with high spirit and long term performance, such as Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) . At the same time, we recommend brand enhancement, competitive advantage and outstanding performance of sub high end Baijiu, such as Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) . In the leisure food sector, it is recommended to pay attention to the leisure halogen products head enterprises Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Jiangxi Huangshanghuang Group Food Co.Ltd(002695) , Zhou Heiya, Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) Q3, which are concerned about the accelerated expansion of stores. The profits turn losses into profits, the adjustment effect is obvious, the talents are widely recruited, the incentives are in place, and the performance next year is expected. It is recommended to pay attention. The quick-frozen food industry has a large market space. It is recommended that Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) have competitive advantages in management, channel and brand. Mr. frozen food is the key brand of the company. There is a large market space for prefabricated dishes in China, and prefabricated dishes are expected to become another growth curve of the company.
Risk factors: repeated epidemic risk; Food safety risks.
