Key investment points
Weekly view:
The central economic work conference released the demand side support signal, emphasizing the implementation of policies according to the city and promoting a virtuous cycle: from December 8 to 10, the central economic work conference stressed: adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, strengthen expectation guidance, explore new development models, adhere to the simultaneous development of rent and purchase, accelerate the development of long-term rental housing market and promote the construction of indemnificatory housing, Support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and implement policies to promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
In the second half of this year, China’s real estate market formed a negative feedback cycle of both supply and demand. The central economic work conference and the Political Bureau meeting have successively put forward the statement of meeting the reasonable housing needs of property buyers and superimposing the implementation of policies due to the city. It is expected that cities will successively introduce consumer support policies according to the local market conditions to guide the real estate market to return to a positive cycle.
The third centralized land supply in many cities ended: (1) on December 11, Chongqing’s third centralized land supply ended, with 5 out of 28 land auctions and 3 premium transactions. (2) on December 9, Chengdu’s third centralized land supply ended, with 7 out of 40 land auctions and 12 premium transactions, with an overall premium rate of 5%. (3) on December 9, Xiamen’s third centralized land supply ended, with 7 out of 14 land auctions and 2 Premium transactions. (4) On December 8, the third centralized land supply in Hefei was completed, and 6 of the 25 plots were auctioned. (5) on December 6, 14 of the 75 plots in Jinan were auctioned, and 4 were traded at a premium.
The local auction market in Chengdu has warmed up this week. In addition to the reasons why the local auction relaxed the bidding rules, the consumer support policies in Chengdu in November also provided some confidence for real estate enterprises to get land and collect money. Under the background of the government’s active guidance, it is expected that the urban land market with relaxed policies will gradually pick up.
The industry is under great pressure under the decline of sales and the strengthening of pre-sale fund supervision, but the central economic work conference released a positive signal to support the improvement of the demand side. It is expected that the market is expected to break the negative feedback cycle and develop healthily. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of the expected marginal improvement of policies in the real estate sector in the fourth quarter and the optimization of the competition pattern in the land market, and recommend A-share leading real estate enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , as well as H-share growth real estate enterprises green city China and Xuhui holding group.
Industry tracking
Sales review (12.04-12.10): focus on monitoring 33 cities, with a total transaction area of 3.686 million m2, down 15.7% from last week; in 2021, a total transaction area of 229.075 million m2, up 10.1% year-on-year. Among them, the transaction area of the first tier cities was 620000 m2, down 35.8% from last week, a total transaction area of 40.676 million m2 in 2021, up 17.5% year-on-year; the transaction area of the second tier cities was 1.998 million m2, down 15.3% from last week, and in 2021 The cumulative turnover was 108.819 million m2, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 17.5%; The third tier cities sold 1.068 million square meters, an increase of 1.7% over last week. In 2021, a total of 79.58 million square meters were sold, a total year-on-year decrease of 1.5%.
Land supply (11.29-12.05): the planned construction area of Baicheng’s land and homestead supply is 3.59 million m2. In 2021, the cumulative supply of planned construction area is 1032.6 million m2, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 24.4% and a supply-demand ratio of 1.46. In terms of land listing price, the average listing floor price of Baicheng’s land supply is 2713 yuan / m2, and the average listing price in recent four weeks is 4699 yuan / m2, with a month-on-month increase of 4.6% and a year-on-year increase of 51.7%.
Land transaction (11.22-11.28): the planned construction area of land for residential use in Baicheng is 8.85 million m3, with a cumulative turnover of 705.78 million m2 in 2021, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 22.9%. In terms of land transaction floor price and premium rate, the average transaction floor price of land for residential use in Baicheng is 9390 yuan / m2, a month on month increase of 9.4%, a year-on-year increase of 78.4%, and the overall premium rate is 2.2%. The average floor price in 2021 is 5498 yuan / m2, a year-on-year increase The premium rate was 13.1%, down 2.8 percentage points from the same period last year.
Risk warning event: the financing environment is tightened more than expected; Regulatory policies tightened more than expected.
