[key investment points]
Affected by multiple factors such as regulatory policies of the Internet industry, epidemic situation and weak market demand, the a + H-share media Internet sector continued to be under pressure. From the beginning of 2021 to the beginning of December, the A-share media industry has fallen by 13.4% and Hang Seng technology has fallen by 28.2%. After September, the concept of yuancosmos brought A-share theme investment opportunities, and the yuancosmos index rose by 20.9%. In terms of operation, the performance of the media industry has gradually recovered, and the impairment of goodwill is coming to an end. By industry, the game industry is under short-term pressure, and advertising, film and television and other industries have recovered to varying degrees. Hong Kong technology stocks still maintained steady growth, and the net profit was under pressure in the medium and short term. In terms of policy, regulation is the key factor affecting the performance of the media Internet industry in 2021, with anti-monopoly, information security and juvenile protection coming one after another.
The consumption attributes of the media and Internet industry have been strengthened, and the bargaining power of products and content has been enhanced. The efficiency of the Internet industry has reached a critical point, and the Internet penetration is leading the world. In 2020, China’s online retail penetration rate was 24.9%, takeout penetration rate was 18.1%, shared travel penetration rate was 4.1%, and online recruitment employer penetration rate was 24.8%. The length of utility movement slows down. In the long run, the length of entertainment and consumption capacity improve. The dispute between platform and content has entered a new era. Whether it is the trend of decentralization or antitrust supervision, the bargaining power of excellent products and content will be further improved. Tiktok, represented by jitter, quick hand and beep Kwai Li, has gradually become the mainstream media in the second half of the Internet. High-quality content can easily be realized at low cost in UGC.
Games and advertising are expected to improve marginally, video focus is commercialized, and e-commerce competition is intensified. In the game industry, due to the suspension of edition numbers and insufficient short-term game supply, sufficient product reserves are expected to bring strong restorative growth. The competition pattern of short video has stabilized, and commercialization has become the focus of all platforms. Live e-commerce encroaches on the share of traditional e-commerce, and e-commerce competition is further intensified under interconnection. Education and game industries are under pressure, and the advertising industry is expected to recover next year.
[configuration recommendations]
We believe that the investment opportunities of media Internet industry in 2022 focus on three main lines: first, metauniverse is the form of the next generation Internet, and the theme investment is gradually differentiated, focusing on VR hardware, NFT, cloud computing, game engine and other infrastructure; It is suggested to pay attention to Tencent Holdings (0700. HK), Netease (9999. HK) and {000681. SZ). Second, pay attention to the marginal improvement of policies, wait for the resumption of game version numbers and the normalization of Internet supervision; be optimistic about Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) (002555. Sz), Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) (002624. SZ) and cautious about G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) (603444.SH). Third, focusing on the high Kwai raceway, the overseas market is vast, the brand self seeding helps the direct seeding business to redevelop, 1024.HK is optimistic, and Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) is cautiously optimistic (002291.SZ).
[risk tips]
Macroeconomic downside risk
China’s foreign policy regulatory risk
