Investment suggestion: according to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of passenger cars in November 2021 was 2.192 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 4.7% and a month on month increase of 9.2%. The cumulative sales volume from January to November was 19.06 million, with a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. The decline in the growth rate of passenger car sales narrowed and continued to improve month on month. With the gradual easing of the shortage of automobile chips and the recovery of consumer demand at the end of the year, It is expected that the automobile production and sales volume will be further improved in the fourth quarter. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities for the expected improvement of performance brought by high-quality automobile parts suppliers with the recovery of downstream vehicle sales and the decline of raw material prices. In terms of new energy vehicles, in November, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 450000, with a year-on-year increase of 121.1% and a month on month increase of 17.3%. The penetration rate of electric vehicles continued to improve. This year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 3.4 million, and it is expected to exceed 5 million next year. The high outlook continues. The electric gasification and intelligent configuration of electric vehicles are significantly upgraded compared with traditional vehicles, such as EPB The application of large screen liquid crystal instrument, HUD, streaming media rearview mirror, etc. in electric vehicles is relatively higher, and the role of Automotive Software in vehicles is becoming more and more important. Therefore, it is suggested to pay attention to the suppliers of electrified parts, automotive software and other systems that benefit from the rapid development of new energy vehicles and the continuous improvement of penetration rate in addition to the core three electricity.
Market review: last week’s auto The (Shenwan) industry index fell by 0.80%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.95 percentage points. The growth of each segment of the automotive industry in one week was 0.42% for passenger cars, 2.11% for commercial trucks, 2.48% for commercial buses, 1.45% for auto parts, 1.48% for automotive services and 2.03% for other transportation equipment. There were 209 stocks in the automotive industry, 81 stocks rose, 125 stocks fell and 3 stocks were flat 。 The top increases were Yunnan Xiyi Industrial Co.Ltd(002265) 61.18%, Guangdong Dcenti Auto-Parts Stock Limited Company(603335) 61.18%, Hunan Tyen Machinery Co.Ltd(600698) 61.14%, Zhejiang Yueling Co.Ltd(002725) 60.97% and Guangdong Hongtu Technology (Holdings) Co.Ltd(002101) 35.68%, while the top decreases were Changchun Faway Automobile Components Co.Ltd(600742) – 23.18%, Nanjng Yueboo Power System Co.Ltd(300742) – 18.60%, Dynavolt Renewable Energy Technology (Henan) Co.Ltd(002684) – 15.72%, Ningbo Heli Technology Co.Ltd(603917) – 14.60% and Foryou Corporation(002906) – 14.08%. At present, the overall valuation PE (TTM) of the automotive industry is 33.6 times, higher than the historical average pe19.1 times in recent 9 years.
Industry trends: 1) the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the Interim Provisions on the management of automotive radar radio; 2) Volkswagen Bosch will cooperate to develop automotive software; 3) Tesla suspended accepting new orders for modelx / s outside North America.
Company dynamics: 1), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (000887): Announcement on Exempting controlling shareholders from undertaking to avoid horizontal competition; 2), Zhejiang Vie Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002590) (002590): plan for non-public issuance of a shares; 3), Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) (600104): Announcement on launching demonstration application of enjoy robotaxi project.
Risk factors: the sales volume of vehicles is lower than expected, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, and the policy is lower than expected.
