In November, the production and sales of the automobile market decreased year-on-year, and the automobile consumption in the first November was generally stable
According to the data of China Automobile Association, the wholesale sales volume of automobile in 2021 / 11 was – 9.1% year-on-year / month on month + 8.1% to 2.522 million; Among them, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles were – 4.7% / mom + 9.2% to 2.192 million, and the wholesale sales of commercial vehicles were – 30.3% / mom + 1.1% to 330000. In the first November of 2021, the wholesale sales volume of automobiles increased by + 4.5% year-on-year to 23.489 million; Among them, the cumulative wholesale sales of passenger vehicles increased by + 7.1% year-on-year to 19.06 million, and the cumulative wholesale sales of commercial vehicles increased by – 5.3% year-on-year to 4.429 million. In order to remove the influencing factors of the epidemic in 2020, we compared the cumulative wholesale sales data in the first November of 2021 with the same period in 2019. The results showed that the number of vehicles increased by 1.7% compared with the same period in 2019 (passenger vehicles decreased by 0.9% and commercial vehicles increased by 13.9%).
In November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles maintained a year-on-year high growth and reached a new high
2021 / 11 Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile production increased by + 127.8% year-on-year / 15.1% month on month to 457000 vehicles, The sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by + 121.1% year-on-year / month on month + 17.3% to 450000 vehicles (with a penetration rate of 17.8%); in the first November of 2021, the cumulative output of new energy vehicles increased by + 164.7% year-on-year to 3023000 vehicles, and the cumulative sales volume increased by + 166.8% year-on-year to 2990000 vehicles (with a penetration rate of 12.7%). Overall, the production and sales volume has maintained a year-on-year trend since 2021 and continued to refresh the historical record of the current month.
In November, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles / commercial vehicles increased month on month, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 19.5%
In 2021 / 11, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles increased by + 125.9% / mom + 16.8% to 427000 (penetration rate reached 19.5%), and the sales volume of new energy commercial vehicles increased by + 57.3% / mom + 28.0% to 23000 (penetration rate reached 7.0%). In November before 2021, the cumulative sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles / commercial vehicles increased by + 177.6% / + 54.5% to 2837000 / 152000, penetration rate reached 15.1% / 3.5% respectively.
Investment suggestion: continue to be optimistic about the climbing trend of sales of A00 models / high-end pure electric and plug-in hybrid models. It is expected that the sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in 2021e is expected to reach 3.4-3.5 million. It is expected that as the shortage of chips is gradually alleviated, the industry may start to replenish the stock, and is optimistic about auto enterprises with strong model product cycle (strong sales volume and profit elasticity of supply chain mitigation), continuous increase of new energy penetration / clear promotion path of intelligent electrification. The passenger car sector recommends Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Automobile and Tesla, and it is recommended to pay attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) .
Risk analysis: the reduction of chip shortage is less than expected; Rising prices of raw materials; Industry growth is less than expected; Disturbance of macroeconomic factors; Negative impact of new energy vehicle policy change; Technology renewal risk; The risk of overcapacity caused by intensified market competition.
