Industry core view:
Last week (December 6, 2021 to December 12, 2021), the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.63%,
Shenwan food and beverage index rose 5.47%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.84 percentage points, ranking second among Shenwan’s 28 primary sub industries. All sub sectors of food and beverage rose last week. The food and beverage sector performed strongly this week, and the sector maintained an upward trend. In terms of mass products: Based on the price increase environment, there are marginal improvement opportunities in the sector, the pressure on the cost side is expected to be relieved, and the profitability may be gradually improved. Beer: the trend of high-end beer will accelerate, and the consumption demand of high-end beer will show a steady growth trend. Baijiu: Moutai “dismantling order” will be gradually abolished. Affected by the convening of the distributors’ conference, the Baijiu plate has strong performance this week. All liquor enterprises are preparing for the Spring Festival peak season sales and will make a good start next year. Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu demand core factors remain unchanged, the industry development for a long time to good, high-end liquor growth certainty, the second high-end liquor elasticity highlights, high-end, secondary high-end Baijiu plate has a good investment opportunities. We believe that Baijiu is still a priority track for expanding scale and high barrier level, and recommends the allocation of high-end Baijiu plate.
Key investment points:
Baijiu weekly: last week, the Baijiu plate rose 5.44%. Among them, Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co.Ltd(600559) (+ 26.72%), Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) (+ 19.90%) and Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) (+ 11.74%) increased by the top three. Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : last week, the overall price of Maotai liquor rose slightly. In the past 20 years, the price of Feitian Maotai liquor was about 3550 yuan, at a high level, and the price of Feitian bulk bottle was about 2730 yuan to 2750 yuan. We think the price increases slightly, mainly due to the influence of the Baijiu Conference on the sales of the Spring Festival. Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : cancel the subsidiaries of two home appliance manufacturers. On December 6, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) announced that after deliberation by the board of directors of the company, it was decided to cancel two wholly-owned subsidiaries such as Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) baidiao innovation e-commerce Co., Ltd., Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) preferred e-commerce Co., Ltd. Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) said that due to the adjustment of the management mode of major e-commerce platforms, baidiao e-commerce and preferred e-commerce did not put into formal operation and did not actually inject capital. The online sales business originally planned to be carried out by baidiao e-commerce was actually undertaken by e-commerce companies, so it was finally decided to cancel. Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) : all regions prepare for Spring Festival peak season sales. On December 7, Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) announced that from the market feedback, all regions of the company have entered the sales preparation state in the peak season of the Spring Festival. Yanghe channel is in good condition and began to prepare for the coming year. The dealer reported that the payment and goods preparation in 2022 had started in November, and the company is expected to make a good start in the peak season of Spring Festival in 2022. Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) : there are 1 million controllable terminals. On December 8, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) said on the investor interaction platform that the company continued to strengthen the channel sinking of the market in Shanxi Province, launched the “one hundred counties and one thousand towns” plan, achieved full coverage and refined operation in the county-level market in Shanxi Province, dispatched sales personnel to attract investment in markets outside the province, assisted in expanding terminal outlets and strengthened control over terminals. By the third quarter of 2021, the company had 1 million controllable terminals.
food
Beer: on the 6th, AB InBev held an investor seminar. Deng Mingxiao, CEO of AB InBev, set a medium-term core profit growth target of 4% to 8% for the world’s largest beer producer. The company expects growth to reach 10-12% this year.
Snack food: Wahaha: Zong Fuli is the vice chairman and general manager of Wahaha Group. On December 9, the official website of Wahaha Group announced that Ms. Zong Fuli was appointed Vice Chairman and general manager of the group company. The personnel appointment means that Zong Qinghou, who is at the helm of Wahaha, has finally delegated power to his successor Zong Fuli after 33 years of controlling the enterprise. Since April 2018, Zong Fuli has served as the director of the brand public relations department of Wahaha Group and the deputy general manager of the sales company of Wahaha Group since March 2020.
Condiment: Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) : the product price will be increased by 4% – 10%. On the evening of December 8, Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) released the announcement of the company’s product price adjustment. The company said that based on the rising costs of main raw and auxiliary materials, packaging materials, labor, transportation and energy, as well as the rising costs caused by the company’s optimization and upgrading of products, in order to better provide consumers with high-quality products and services and promote the sustainable development of the market, the company has studied and decided, The ex factory prices of various series of products of the company are adjusted, and the price increase range of main products is 4% – 10%. The new price will be implemented according to the product price adjustment notice from December 25, 2021. Jiajia Food Group Co.Ltd(002650) : it is said that the main direction of investment attraction next year is the first-line and sinking market. Yang Yamei, Secretary of the board of directors, said that the company’s products have been making a national layout. Next year’s investment attraction mainly has two directions: one is the expansion of front-line markets such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and the other is the market sinking, which extends down to county-level cities and township areas on the basis of the existing market.
Risk factors: 1 Policy risk 2 Food safety risk 3 Epidemic risk 4 Risk of economic growth falling short of expectations
