Industry core view:
Last week, the Shenwan commercial trade index rose 0.87%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.76 percentage points. Among key stocks, Ruili Yimei, Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) , Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co.Ltd(600655) , and Gaoxin retail led the increase. Suggestions: ① medical beauty: the potential space on the demand side is broad, the supervision on the supply side is stricter, the upstream profitability is strong, and the competition pattern is good. Focus on the investment opportunities brought by the rapid expansion of leading enterprises through technological progress, category expansion, channel sinking and so on; ② Cosmetics: beauty value economy superimposes the rise of domestic cosmetics. It is suggested to pay attention to cosmetics companies that actively expand brand and category matrix, pay attention to diversified marketing and omni-channel layout; ③ Gold jewelry: the epidemic situation accelerates industry integration, channel reform and the improvement of multi scene penetration, which is beneficial to the leading enterprises of gold jewelry; ④ Mother and baby: since the implementation of the three child policy, governments across the country have issued a number of birth incentives. It is expected that the birth rate is expected to boost in the future with the implementation of more relevant supporting measures and policies. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of mother and baby racetracks in advance.
Key investment points:
Market review: last week From December 6 to December 12, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.63%, the Shenwan commercial trade index rose by 0.87%, and the commercial trade index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.76 percentage points, ranking 14th among the 28 primary industry indexes of Shenwan. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 5.57%, the number of commercial trade indexes fell by 3.39%, and the Shenwan commercial trade index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 8.96 percentage points, Among the 28 Tier-1 sub industries of Shenwan, the increase ranked 21st.
Industry data: ① social zero data: in October 2021, China’s total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by + 4.9% year-on-year, compared with the same period in 2019 + 9.4%, with an average of + 4.6% in two years. Among them, the growth rate of commodity retail accelerated, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.2%, and the growth rate of catering revenue fell again, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.0%. Among the sub categories, the retail sales of gold, silver, jewelry and cosmetics of units above the quota were + 12.6% and + 7.2% respectively year-on-year. ② Raw material price data: Comex gold fell US $0.80 to US $1783.10/oz last week, and Comex silver fell US $0.35 to US $22.22/oz. ③ E-commerce data: November 2021, The turnover of Taoxi platform cosmetics (including beauty and skin care and color makeup) was 66.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10%, and the turnover of jewelry was 9.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4%. In terms of beauty, in November, the overall performance of Chinese brands was better than that of international brands, and Chinese brands Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , MARUMI and Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) performed well; in terms of jewelry, Hong Kong and domestic brands performed well, and domestic brands Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) Its design circles, Laomiao, Caibai and Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) are growing rapidly.
Important announcements of listed companies: Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) release the announcement on the progress of share reduction; Syoung Group Co.Ltd(300740) issue the circulation announcement of restricted shares; Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) release the resignation announcement of core executives; Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) issue an announcement on the progress of foreign investment; Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) release the announcement on the progress of introducing strategic investors; Xie Ruilin issued an interim report announcement; Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) issue an announcement on the progress of equity sale; Shanghai Lily&Beauty Cosmetics Co.Ltd(605136) issue an announcement on the progress of share reduction.
Important events in the industry: ① China cosmetics annual conference | Deng Min: innovation driven brand era; ② In November, new consumer brands raised 6.6 billion yuan: capital still likes to eat and drink, and CVC is on the rise.
Risk factors: the risk of resurgence of epidemic, less than expected recovery of consumption and intensified industry competition
