In 2022, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles with more than 100000 yuan is expected to increase by more than 90%, and the market share of independent brands is expected to increase to 65% in 2025. Features of new energy and new models in 2022: 1) large affordable items, It has high cost performance (advantages of pure electric platform) / differentiated positioning; 2) high-end pure electric vehicles are expected to blossom, with prominent highlights of luxurious configuration, intelligence, fast charging / long endurance; 3) autonomous hybrid is expected to blossom in many points. We expect Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) in the middle of 2022 The sales volume of passenger cars reached 5.21 million, of which the sales volume of new energy passenger cars with more than 100000 yuan in 2022 is expected to reach 4.01 million, a year-on-year increase of 91%. Historically, joint venture brands accounted for more than 50% of passenger cars. From January to October 2021, the growth of new energy sales led to an increase in the market share of independent brands from 38.4% in 2020 to 43.9%. In the future, with the continuous growth of the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles, we estimate that the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles is expected to reach 1262 in 2025, and the independent brand is expected to maintain a leading edge in the new energy market. We expect that the market share of independent brand passenger vehicles is expected to increase to 65% in 2025.
Electric vehicles are expected to open the profit space of their own brands, and the whole vehicle stocks will change from cycle to growth. 1) Compared with fuel vehicles, Consumers' willingness to price electric vehicles is higher (from some representative models, such as: Byd Company Limited(002594) The pure electric version of Qin plus is more expensive than the fuel version with the same configuration, but the sales volume is better (it can be inferred); 2) Pure electric platform models have the advantages of leapfrog cost reduction and easier platform, and the cost is expected to be lower than that of fuel vehicles at the same level; 3) Therefore, the profitability of electric vehicles is expected to significantly exceed that of fuel vehicles in the future. In the era of fuel vehicles, the average net interest rate of the top enterprises with high profitability in the whole vehicle enterprises in the past five years was about 0-5%; In the era of electric vehicles, in the next five years, with the accelerated decline of the cost of vehicle enterprises, the gross profit margin of new energy vehicles is expected to reach more than 25% and the net profit margin is expected to reach more than 10%. Therefore, in the next few years, the volume of new energy vehicles will rise, and the performance elasticity is significant. The vehicle stocks are expected to change from the past product cycle to the long-term sustained high growth drive. We mainly recommend Byd Company Limited(002594) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) and Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) which are expected to continue to rise in the production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles.
With the strong rise of independent parts, China is expected to produce many global leading enterprises in subdivided industries. On the one hand, with the rapid development of the new energy market, the effective sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles (more than 100000 yuan) is expected to achieve a high growth of more than 90% in 2022, and the relevant parts enterprises are expected to usher in a period of high performance flexibility; On the other hand, behind the high growth of sales, independent brands are redefining the form of automobile products, and supply chain companies usher in an opportunity period. Independent parts suppliers have significant advantages: good mechanism & strong initiative, fast response, good supply stability and easier to realize globalization. Therefore, under the background of reshaping the whole vehicle pattern, excellent independent parts enterprises are expected to rise. Under the background of accelerating the penetration of global new energy vehicles, many high-quality Chinese suppliers are expected to enter the global supply chain and gradually grow into global leaders in subdivided industries.
We are optimistic about the high-quality parts company accelerating its growth under the background of electric intelligence. Electric Intelligence helps the rise of independent brands and provides opportunities for the development of independent parts. We are optimistic about those parts enterprises that layout electric intelligent incremental parts based on the original business or traditional parts products that are difficult to enter the mainstream market in the era of traditional fuel vehicles, achieve a breakthrough from 0 to 1 with the help of new energy vehicles, and significantly benefit from the large volume of new energy vehicles. In 2022, we are optimistic about the following sub industries: intelligent driving & Intelligent cockpit, new energy vehicle thermal management industry, interior and exterior decoration industry with consumption upgrading characteristics, etc. We are also optimistic about the parts enterprises that benefit from the large volume of new energy vehicles, can produce high income elasticity and may grow into the leading parts enterprises in the subdivided industry in the future. We mainly recommend: Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Jiangsu Changshu Automotive Trim Group Co.Ltd(603035) , Shanghai Kelai Mechatronics Engineering Co.Ltd(603960) , and suggest paying attention to: Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Meig Smart Technology Co.Ltd(002881) .
Risk tip: the impact of chip shortage exceeds expectations, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles are less than expected, the risk of epidemic out of control or continuous spread, and the promotion of intelligent driving is less than expected.
