Key points:
Last week, medical service II fell 2.47%, ranking in the middle reaches of the pharmaceutical sub section. Last week, pharmaceutical biology closed at 11120.71 points, down 1.63%, ranking 27th in the Shenwan industry, with the highest decline. The CSI 300 rose 0.84%, and medicine underperformed the CSI 300 index. Medical service II closed at 12797.90 points, down 2.47%; Traditional Chinese Medicine II closed at 7455.14, up 1.17%; Chemical pharmaceuticals closed at 11761.66 points, down 2.41%; Biological products II closed at 12699.97 points, down 2.24%; Pharmaceutical Business II closed at 5802.04 points, down 1.60%; Medical device II closed at 9380.79 points, down 1.11%; From the characteristics of rise and fall, the traditional Chinese medicine sector led the rise, while medical services, chemical pharmaceuticals and biological products fell significantly. From the performance of Companies in the medical service sector, the companies with the highest performance are: Shanghai Labway Clinical Laboratory Co.Ltd(301060) (+ 24.53%), * ST Hengkang (+ 20.22%), Shanghai Runda Medical Technology Co.Ltd(603108) (+ 11.21%), St Zhongzhu (+ 5.26%), Sino Biological Inc(301047) (+ 2.11%); the companies with the lowest performance are: Shanghai Medicilon Inc(688202) (- 15.71%), Novogene Co.Ltd(688315) (- 12.14%), Guangzhou Kingmed Diagnostics Group Co.Ltd(603882) (- 9.99%), digital people (- 9.17%) and Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) (- 8.59%).
Medical service PE (TTM) decreased by 2.00 and Pb (LF) decreased by 0.25 month on month. At present, PE in medical service sector is 76.07, the maximum value of PE in recent year is 185.47 and the minimum value is 73.07; The current Pb is 9.38, the maximum value of Pb in recent year is 14.47 and the minimum value is 9.01. PE in the medical service sector decreased by 2.00 month on month, Pb decreased by 0.25 month on month, and PE and Pb in the medical service sector were at the bottom level in recent one year. The premium rate of the medical service sector relative to the CSI 300 valuation was 487.62%.
The national medical insurance negotiation has been implemented, and the medical insurance catalogue has both in and out, which is good for innovation
2021 national health insurance negotiation results were released, and the success rate outside the catalogue was 78.82%. On December 3, the state medical insurance administration announced the adjustment results of the national medical insurance drug catalogue in 2021. A total of 74 drugs were added to the catalogue, and 11 drugs were transferred out of the catalogue, including 67 exclusive varieties transferred through negotiation. It is expected that the medical insurance negotiation will be conducive to the timely inclusion of new drugs into medical insurance, so as to realize the exchange of quantity for price, encourage pharmaceutical innovation and benefit the “innovative drug” industrial chain.
The success rate of drugs included in the negotiation reached a new high, with an average decrease of 61.71%. As of the end of this negotiation, the total number of varieties in the national medical insurance catalogue is 2860, which is the highest in history. 117 drugs were included in the negotiation scope. Finally, 94 drugs (67 outside the catalogue and 27 inside the catalogue) were successfully negotiated, with an overall success rate of 80.34%. The average price reduction of 67 drugs outside the catalogue was 61.71%, which was in line with the expectation.
11 drugs are transferred out, most of which are of low clinical value, strong substitutability and small purchase volume. A total of 11 drugs have been transferred out of the medical insurance catalogue this time. These drugs have equivalent or better curative effects in the existing catalogue, which will not affect the treatment of related diseases. At the same time, the transfer out of these drugs also makes room for more new and good drugs to be included in the catalogue.
Negotiations on new indications of 15 varieties were successful during the agreement period. Among PD-1 products, Xinda, Junshi and Baiji have all entered the new indications of PD-1, Hengrui’s two new indications of nasopharyngeal carcinoma this year have not entered the medical insurance, and the imported PD-1 / PD-L1, including drug K of MSD and drug o of BMS, have not entered the medical insurance. Renewal of 74 expired varieties. From some varieties whose renewal prices have been announced by the medical insurance bureau, we can observe that most varieties are renewed at the original price, and only a few varieties are reduced by 4% – 55%.
Important information
(1) The National Medical Insurance Bureau issued the notice on printing and distributing the three-year action plan for DRG / Dip payment method reform
On November 26, the National Medical Insurance Bureau issued the notice on printing and distributing the three-year action plan for DRG / Dip payment reform, requiring to accelerate the full coverage of DRG / Dip payment reform on the basis of the preliminary results achieved in the three-year pilot. The plan will accelerate the reform of DRG / Dip payment mode and basically achieve full coverage by the end of 2025. The release of the plan will accelerate the nationwide reform of medical insurance payment, and force the reduction of unreasonable medical insurance expenditure in the form of total fee control, so as to improve the utilization efficiency of medical insurance funds. Both DRGs group payment and dip score payment are for the classification of inpatients, and their essence is to control the unreasonable growth of medical expenses. After the introduction of DRGs / dip, the medical insurance department can better control the total medical insurance payment, while the hospital needs to control the single hospitalization expenses, force the hospital to improve efficiency, reduce service costs, inhibit over examination and over treatment, and improve the diagnosis and treatment quality in order to obtain higher points. It is expected that there will still be pressure on relevant categories affected by medical insurance fee control, which is conducive to accelerating the R & D and listing of innovative varieties.
(2) Henan Province issued the notice on bringing some retail chain pharmacies into the scope of centralized drug procurement (pilot) in Henan Province
Henan Medical Insurance Bureau recently issued the notice on bringing some retail chain pharmacies into the scope of centralized drug procurement (pilot) in Henan Province (hereinafter referred to as the notice) ）, some qualified medical insurance designated retail chain pharmacies will be included in the scope of centralized drug procurement. If other designated medical insurance retail pharmacies are not included in the scope of the pilot, after the pilot is successful, all designated medical insurance retail pharmacies in Henan will be gradually included in the scope of centralized drug procurement. In order to improve the identification of such pharmacies and enhance social supervision, the notice requires that once the designated medical insurance retail chain pharmacies included in the scope of centralized volume procurement in Henan Province will hang a unified sign of “designated sales pharmacies for centralized volume procurement of drugs”, set up special areas and counters for centralized drug collection, and post the sign of “centralized volume procurement of drugs” in an obvious position, Publicize the winning price of centralized purchase of drugs and the sales price of our store, so as to ensure the effective protection of the interests of the masses.
This week’s view
In the short term, it is expected that the price reduction of drugs will be relatively stable, and the short-term repressive factors in the medical service sector will be relieved. The medical insurance negotiation is conducive to the timely inclusion of new drugs into the medical insurance, so as to realize the exchange of price by quantity, encourage medical innovation, and benefit the “innovative drug” industry chain. In the long run, under the background of deepening medical reform, the medical service sector has good growth and has the attribute of policy immunity. We maintain the “overweight” rating of the medical service sector, and suggest paying attention to the medical service Ophthalmology, Stomatology, innovative drug industry chain cro, cdmo and other related companies.
Risk statement
(1) Uncertainty of policy changes; (2) the R & D investment of innovative drugs is less than expected; (3) the performance of the industry and listed companies is less than expected risk.
