Key points:
High performance growth of listed companies, overestimation can be digested
As of November 30, 2021, Wande new energy vehicle index rose by 75.4% in the past year, However, the valuation (PE, TTM) only increased by 7.0% to 75.8 times, and the valuation change is not obvious, mainly due to the company’s profit. At this stage, the valuation of the new energy automobile sector is high. However, we believe that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will increase rapidly in 2021 and the industrial chain will boom. It is expected that Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) in the middle of 2021 The automobile production and sales volume was about 3.3 million, with a significant year-on-year increase of about 140%. The performance of relevant listed companies is expected, and the overvalued value can be digested. Later, with the release of the 2021 annual report, the valuation of the new energy vehicle sector is expected to further explore.
The market continued to tap stagflation varieties, and the rise of cobalt price attracted attention
Recently, the cobalt industry, Tesla supply chain and other early stagflation varieties have been active. Lithium and cobalt are often used for comparison, but the fundamentals are different. In terms of investment logic, the investment logic of lithium is biased towards the demand side, that is, the global production and marketing of new energy vehicles leads to a surge in lithium demand, and the supply growth can not keep up with the demand growth; The investment logic of cobalt is biased towards the supply side, that is, the cobalt supply is limited for a long time. Under the tight balance between supply and demand, the instability of cobalt supply brings opportunities for price rise.
The fluctuation of cobalt price has a certain seasonality. The peak demand season in the first half of the year is replenishment after the Spring Festival, and the peak demand season in the second half of the year is golden nine silver ten and Christmas stock after the summer break. The recent peak demand season of cobalt supports that cobalt price is easy to rise but difficult to fall, steadily rising and moderately rising. On the other hand, cobalt supply is affected by uncertain shipping schedule and the epidemic in South Africa. Unstable supply also supports cobalt prices. Cobalt prices are expected to remain high.
Listed companies have intensively invested in the construction of iron phosphate / lithium iron phosphate capacity
Recently, phosphorus chemical enterprises including Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Sichuan Development Lomon Co.Ltd(002312) have invested in the construction of iron phosphate / lithium iron phosphate production capacity. Due to the control of phosphate ore mining and thermal phosphoric acid, phosphorus chemical enterprises have entered the field of lithium battery materials by controlling the upstream phosphorus source. Generally speaking, 2500 tons of lithium iron phosphate are required for 1GWh power battery, or 10000 tons of lithium iron phosphate can supply 4gwh power battery. Compared with China, the output of lithium iron phosphate power battery from January to October 2021 is only 87.5gwh, and the risk of overcapacity of iron phosphate / lithium iron phosphate looms in the future.
Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) rush to the international track of cathode materials
Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) signed a strategic cooperation agreement with sk of South Korea, and both sides agreed to jointly build overseas production capacity. Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) is one of the few leading cathode material enterprises in China on the road of internationalization. This strategic cooperation marks Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) entering the European market and the Korean market, and is expected to enter the American market through ski.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to the leading companies of lithium battery materials. With the in-depth interpretation of the market, the market is digging deeper and deeper; At present, the hot sales of new energy vehicles drive the surge in demand, while the supply of lithium ore is rigid, benefiting from the soaring product price under the contradiction between supply and demand, and the performance elasticity of the company is very large! Although the increase in the early stage is huge, there are still opportunities; Traditional car companies are valuation valleys. Over the years, the market has almost ignored traditional fuel car companies and actively transformed new energy vehicles. In the long run, there are opportunities for value revaluation. Maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry.
Risk statement
The new energy vehicle industry is greatly affected by the policy and the boom fluctuates violently;
The competition in the new energy vehicle industry has intensified; Competition in the power battery industry has intensified.
