Market review: plate overall rise, beer, Baijiu, dairy products increased significantly
Last week, SW food and beverage rose 5.41%, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 3.01%, and the sector rose as a whole. In the molecular industry, beer industry rose 6.61% last week, the Baijiu industry rose 5.47%, the food industry increased 4.19%, the dairy industry rose 5.11%, the meat industry rose 3.09%, and the seasoning industry rose 4.74%.
Last week’s view: the high-end demand is strong, and the price logic can be expected next year
Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu: we have been focusing on the high-end liquor opportunities for weeks. This week, the logic has been verified that the high-end Baijiu plate is strong, and the current push to push the high-end liquor sector is still coming. We propose that the liquor business has strong barriers to the Baijiu plate and high-end Baijiu, and the business model has the superiority. The performance stability in 2022 is still strong, and the valuation is at a reasonable position. The core logic of the high-end segment is price increase. We believe that the price increase ability of high-end liquor enterprises has always been. Enterprises steadily increase prices – control goods – stabilize prices according to their own development rhythm is the way for long-term development. The high-end Baijiu suggests a long term layout and is a long-term core asset with high quality.
Beer: the high-end pace of Tsingtao beer is steady, and the reform of heavy beer channel enables long-term development. Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) the high-end performance continues to accelerate, the medium and high-end volume drives the upward product structure, and the high growth of Heiji Liaoning and Inner Mongolia contributes to profits. As far as Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) channel reform is concerned, we believe that on the one hand, this reform can enable each business division to obtain the operation right of all products and all channels and improve competitiveness, on the other hand, it can also help the channels form a better joint force and stabilize the price at the same time.
Catering industry chain: angel is expected to improve throughout the year and Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) competitiveness is expected to continue to show. Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) under the effect of price increase, the annual expectation is expected to increase. At the same time, benefiting from China’s good competition pattern, we expect the company’s price raising ability to continue to strengthen. We recently recommended angel as a key and one of the three main lines of the annual strategy. Angel is a high-quality leader with a good industry pattern and has strong cost transmission ability. Recently Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) issued a price increase announcement, mainly aimed at the distribution channels to deal with the rising costs to a certain extent and ensure the stability of profits. The overall profitability of big B terminal remains stable due to factors such as price lock.
Soft drinks: Lulu enters the preparation stage of the new year’s goods Festival and expects the new products to bring sustained performance growth. For He Bei Cheng De Lolo Company Limited(000848) , the fourth quarter, as a traditional peak season, is mainly the growth brought by the preparation of goods during the Spring Festival. Since the beginning of this year, the company has continuously enriched the construction of channel network through intensive cultivation and sinking of channels, superimposed the investment of terminal advertising and the pull of dynamic sales, and the annual cargo Festival this year is expected to achieve good growth.
Dairy products: this week Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) 317.95 million non-public shares were issued at an issue price of 37.89 yuan / share, raising a total of 12.047 billion yuan. Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) in the first three quarters, the total operating revenue was 85.007 billion yuan and the net profit was 7.967 billion yuan. Among them, the market share of high-quality products such as Jindian and anmushi ranked among the top in the subdivided fields, and Jindian maintained an increase of more than 20%.
Suggestions: Maotai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887)
Data tracking:
Baijiu: Moutai and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) have risen in price. The price of the national cellar is stable. The beer industry has been declining continuously. The price of imported barley has increased, and the price of coated glass and corrugated paper has declined.
Dairy industry: the average price of fresh milk fell slightly, the prices of whole milk powder and skimmed milk powder increased, the price of soybean meal increased slightly, and the import price of corn increased
Risk tip: the consumption scenario caused by the epidemic is limited, the terminal mobile sales do not meet expectations, the high-end process is blocked, food safety problems, etc.
