Crude oil: market volatility rose. Early stage of the week: on the supply side, OPEC + meeting decided to increase production by 400000 barrels / day in January, and the market weighed the impact of releasing strategic reserves and increasing production on supply; On the demand side, affected by US employment data and stock market, crude oil remained low and volatile. Late in the week: the international oil price fluctuated and rose; On the supply side, Iran’s nuclear negotiations have stalled, Iran’s crude oil export prospects are unclear, EIA crude oil inventories have decreased slightly, and Saudi Arabia has raised the official sales price of crude oil supplied to Asia and the United States; On the demand side, investors’ concerns about the impact of the epidemic on fuel demand have gradually eased. As of the weekend, the weekly average price of Brent crude oil was 74.30 (+ 2.97) USD / barrel, and the weekly average price of WTI crude oil was 70.78 (+ 3.02) USD / barrel.
PX: the center of gravity goes up as a whole. The higher crude oil market price and the higher spot price in the downstream PTA period supported the PX market. During the week, the PX market rose as a whole, and the stronger cost side boosted the mentality of the downstream market. On the supply side, the fourth line of East China large factory was put into trial operation at the end of November and is now in normal operation. China’s production capacity has further increased and the overall market supply has increased. On the demand side, the maintenance time of 2.4 million T / a PTA unit in East China plant was extended within the week, and it is planned to restart in January 2022. The 3.3 million T / a PTA unit in Ningbo plant was blocked due to shipment and reduced load. It is still necessary to observe the change of epidemic situation in a short time, the overall start-up of downstream PTA declined, and the demand for raw materials decreased. As of the weekend, the weekly average price of pxcfr China’s main port was 821.57 (- 13.86) USD / ton, the price difference between PX and crude oil was 279.21 (- 35.51) USD / ton, the weekly average price difference between PX and naphtha was 103.67 (+ 2.32) USD / ton, and the operating rate was 71.19% (0.00pct).
PTA: market focus rises. Omikron has limited influence on the market. With the increase of Saudi Arabia’s official selling price, crude oil prices fluctuated and rose, and the cost side began to strengthen. At the supply side, the maintenance time of 2.4 million T / a PTA plant in East China is extended, and it is planned to restart in January 2022. The shipment of 3.3 million T / a PTA plant from Ningbo to a large plant is blocked and the load is reduced. Sichuan energy investment 1 million T / A PTA plant is now in stable operation, and the subsequent northeast and South China manufacturers have maintenance plans. On the demand side, affected by the epidemic situation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, some polyester factories and logistics are blocked, the commencement of polyester market is reduced as a whole, and the downstream just needs to be purchased. At present, the average weekly price of PTA spot is 4510.71 (- 35.00) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is -2.59 (+ 23.79) yuan / ton, and the operating rate is 64.70% (- 7.90pct).
MEG: the market rebounded after falling. The international price of naphtha rebounded sharply, the coal price is expected to continue to operate stably, and the raw material support end is acceptable. On the supply side, two units were restarted this week. During the load increase, three units in East China and South China were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in China’s output and imports. On the demand side, due to the weakening of terminal demand, the operating load of downstream polyester is reduced, the demand is reduced, and the operating rate of terminal weaving industry is reduced. At present, the weekly average price of MEG spot is 4844.29 (- 108.57) yuan / ton, the inventory in East China tank farm is 609100 (+ 0.82) tons, and the operating rate is 50.00% (+ 1.60pct).
Polyester filament: market shock and decline. At the beginning of the week, the cost side fluctuated and the support was insufficient. In the middle of the week, the international oil price rose and the support was OK; The quotations of mainstream manufacturers were increased by a narrow margin, and the promotion was dragged down by the high pressure of inventory in the middle of the week. However, downstream users were not willing to purchase, bargain hunting, local production and sales volume, and the focus of market transactions moved downward. At present, the polymerization cost side has a certain support for the market, but after the promotion, the trading atmosphere in the polyester filament market has dropped rapidly, and the production and marketing rate has decreased significantly. At present, the weekly average price of polyester filament is poy7156 43 (- 256.43) yuan / ton, fdy7392.86 (- 200.00) yuan / ton and dty8742.86 (- 305.71) yuan / ton. The industry’s average profit per ton is POY + 318.69 (- 125.72) yuan / ton, FDY + 210.12 (- 88.26) yuan / ton and DTY + 508.80 (- 158.43) yuan / ton respectively. The inventory days of polyester filament enterprises are poy21.5 (+ 1.00) days, fdy23.0 (+ 0.5) days and dty25.5 (+ 1.0) days respectively, with an operating rate of 79.90% （+0.80pct）。
Weaving: reduced market demand. The downstream delivery was poor, the grey cloth inventory increased, some cloth merchants started to sell, and many places had holidays in advance. Recently, under the influence of covid-19 virus, market panic has increased. At present, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 56.37% (- 2.56pct), and the grey fabric inventory is 31.00 (+ 1.00) days.
Polyester staple fiber: the market rose by a narrow margin. On the cost side, OPEC and its Member States maintained the production increase plan, and crude oil prices stopped falling and turned up, but it was difficult to form a strong boost to the staple fiber market. At the supply side, Sinopec Yizheng Chemical fiber has four short fiber devices that have not been restarted for shutdown and maintenance, Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) Zhonglei has opened two new short fiber device lines, and the short fiber output has decreased slightly. On the demand side, the quotation of staple fiber enterprises increased, the downstream replenished moderately, and the production and sales improved. Under the continuous warming of the price at the raw material side, most yarn enterprises just need to buy. The downstream and traders are more cautious and wait-and-see with money, and the market price rise space is limited. At present, the weekly average price of polyester staple fiber is 6895.52 (- 59.52) yuan / ton, the industry average profit per ton is + 287.56 (+ 4.97) yuan / ton, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber enterprises are -0.4 (- 0.5) days, and the operating rate is 77.60% (+ 2.10pct).
Polyester bottle chip: spot supply is tight. On the supply side, there is no device change, and the supply of some manufacturers is still tight. Foreign trade orders are generally received from January to February next year. The proportion of exports is about 10% higher than that in the same period of previous years, and the inventory of most bottle chip manufacturers is at the level of 2-3 days. On the demand side, the foreign trade orders of mainstream factories are well received. Near the end of the year, some large beverage factories begin to purchase the supply of goods next year. At present, the average spot price of PET bottles and chips is 7521.43 (- 85.71) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is + 859.62 (- 12.41) yuan / ton, and the operating rate is 80.70% (0.00pct).
Xinda refining and chemical index: from September 4, 2017 to December 10, 2021, Xinda refining and chemical index increased by 155.32%, the oil processing industry index decreased by – 10.51%, and the CSI 300 index increased by 31.45%.
Relevant listed companies: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) (601233. SH), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) (600346. SH), Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) (000703. SZ), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) (002493. SZ), Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) (603225. SH) and Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) (000301. SZ), etc.
Risk factors: (1) the large refining and chemical plant was put into operation, and the production schedule was lower than expected. (2) the macroeconomic growth rate fell seriously, resulting in a serious depression at the polyester demand side. (3) geopolitics and El Ni ñ o phenomenon had a significant interference with oil prices. (4) unexpected major changes in the production capacity of px-pta-pet industrial chain.
