This week, the central bank announced a comprehensive RRR reduction of 0.5%, releasing about 1.2 trillion yuan of funds, and the real estate chain is expected to be substantially loose; The central economic work conference once again mentioned that we should focus on stability and moderately advance infrastructure construction, so as to lay the direction for the improvement of infrastructure and the demand of cement industry in 2022; The new Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) management appeared after the reorganization, and the company ushered in a new stage of development.
The sector fell this week, underperforming the market: this week, Shenwan building materials index closed at 7313.5 points, down 1.3%, underperforming Wande a. The industry’s average p / E ratio was 13.08 times, down 0.16 from last week.
The central bank’s RRR reduction releases the expectation of real estate easing. It is suggested to pay attention to the real estate chain building materials: the central bank’s RRR reduction confirms the arrival of the inflection point of the policy, and the real estate policy is expected to be further relaxed. Since this year, it has become more difficult for real estate enterprises to finance. Some real estate enterprises have been exposed to credit risks, the social capital chain is relatively tight, production and power restrictions and the interference of the epidemic have dragged down economic development, and it is more difficult to stabilize economic growth by superimposing next year’s export data or falling. The central bank’s RRR reduction was faster than expected, releasing 1.2 trillion funds, further releasing the easing signal of dragging down the economy, or implying a substantive turning point at the bottom of the policy. The RRR reduction will help alleviate the financing difficulties of the real estate industry and further improve the downstream demand, cash flow and profitability of the building materials industry, especially the varieties with strong relevance to the real estate chain. Focus on Longtou Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) , Lets Holdings Group Co.Ltd(002398) , Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) .
The central economic work conference requires that capital construction be moderately advanced and cement take the lead in benefiting: stability and moderately advanced are the core contents of the central economic work conference, which once again strengthens the expectation of good capital construction in 2022. We are more firmly optimistic about the core logic of investment recovery, stable economic growth and the first benefit of the cement and real estate chain in 2022. Capital construction accounts for one third of the cement demand. If the capital construction is moderately advanced, the cement industry will take the lead in benefiting: the cement industry has a strong correlation with capital construction investment, and due to the large price elasticity of cement products, the performance elasticity of Listed Companies in the cement sector is also large. Under the condition of low start-up this year and low growth rate of capital construction, the performance of the cement sector is under pressure. With the improvement of demand in the future, The rebound probability is high. At present, the valuation of the cement industry is relatively low. It is recommended to seize the good opportunity of layout and recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) .
The management of new Tianshan made a new start with the 100 billion leader: Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) after the asset restructuring, it integrated the other cement assets of China building materials except northern cement, Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) and Ningxia Building Materials Group Co.Ltd(600449) . The annual production capacity of cement clinker reached about 300 million tons, exceeding Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) and became the largest listed company in the cement industry. Capacity replacement resources are the core potential of Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) future growth: Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) production lines mostly come from small and medium-sized cement enterprises integrated and acquired, with small single line capacity and low production efficiency. In the context of stricter capacity replacement policy, Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) many small and medium-sized production lines have become an important guarantee for their merger and integration. We are optimistic about Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) breaking up parts into whole, relying on capacity replacement to complete production line upgrading and improve profitability.
Key recommendation
Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) of central China cement, Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) of improved corporate governance, and Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) of industry leaders whose performance is expected to rebound.
Main risks of rating
Risk tips: the recovery of cement prosperity is less than expected, the price of raw materials fluctuates more than expected, industrial policy risks, and the overseas epidemic continues to spread.
