Basic conclusion
At the current time point, we believe that all aspects of consumption are expected to improve marginally next year: first, according to the macro expectation of the decline in commodity prices and the impact of the high base, the ppi-cpi scissors difference is expected to converge, and the fundamentals of mass consumer goods affected by the rise in the price of raw materials in the early stage will be improved. 2、 The rationalization of the supply chain is conducive to the recovery of the production and sales of consumer goods affected by the lack of core and tight transportation capacity in the early stage. At the same time, the recovery of the manufacturing end is also conducive to the improvement of the income and Consumption Willingness of low - and middle-income people. 3、 With the promotion of vaccines and neutralizing antibodies, the epidemic situation is expected to be more and more controllable. If travel and social networking recover to a certain extent, service consumption will improve more upward than downward. 4、 In the context of steady economic growth and common prosperity, policies related to consumption support can be expected.
From the medium and long term to the United States The changing experience of Japanese consumer categories locates the consumption stage in China: from 1960 to now, Japan has experienced a period of family centered mass consumption (high growth of automobiles and household appliances from 1960 to 1973) - a period of personalized and high-end consumption centered on personal consumption (1974-1990) - returning to a period of rational consumption (1991 to now) three stages. The changes of the U.S. consumer market are similar: mass consumption - brand consumption - rational consumption. According to the comparison between China's per capita GDP in 2019 and the contemporaries of the United States and Japan, it can correspond to the medium-term acceleration of personalized, high-end and conspicuous consumption centered on personal consumption in Japan and the early rise of brand consumption in the United States.
The differentiation and expansion of consumer categories will be the characteristics of China's future consumption: during the transition of per capita GDP from US $10000 to US $20000 in the United States and Japan, the proportion of family consumption expenditure on traditional Chinese medicine, insurance, education and entertainment increased, while the proportion of food, tobacco, wine, clothing, household equipment and services decreased, and the housing expenditure showed differentiation; In addition, the proportion of service consumption increased significantly, consumables and semi durable goods in commodity consumption decreased, while durable goods showed differentiation. Over the past decade, China's category boom has changed, showing a similar trend, similar to that of the United States and Japan, slightly ahead of schedule.
Yueji quality leisure and health are the characteristics of intergenerational consumption in the future. We are optimistic about it for a long time in the future: combined with the intergenerational consumption characteristics and migration of Chinese consumers, we judge that Yueji consumption, quality consumption, leisure and entertainment and health consumption will be the main force in the next three years. This is basically consistent with the category change of the United States and Japan after the per capita GDP exceeded US $10000 in the previous study; At the same time, such signs have begun to appear in the discussion heat of social networks, the growth rate of revenue of listed companies and the growth rate of social parts.
Investment advice
Grasp the rhythm of marginal improvement and recovery, and give consideration to growth and valuation. Since this year, consumer stocks have been adjusted more, and the valuations of many sub categories are in the lower quantile of five years. Among them, the valuations of beer, beverages, home textiles, large household appliances and marketing are in the lower quantile, and the growth rate and category change judgment are in the upward channel. Combined with the valuation of various sectors of consumption, we are optimistic about several main lines in the consumption and investment strategy next year: first, the companies expected to conduct a smooth price increase in mass consumer goods, such as dairy products, leisure food & frozen products, beer, large household appliances and sports shoes; Two, strong short-term catalytic activity, medium term pattern and performance to determine the good high-end / second high-end baijiu. 3、 Companies with strong product innovation ability and grasp consumers' consumption motivation, such as clean electrical appliances, Chinese and foreign double driven outdoor sports related companies seizing the opportunity of the epidemic, channel + brand + product promotion gold jewelry companies, etc.
Risk statement
Upstream raw material prices remained high, the improvement of the supply chain did not meet expectations, the economy fell sharply, the strength of policies did not meet expectations, and the epidemic situation was severe repeatedly.
