This week’s topic
The central economic work conference held from December 8 to 10 pointed out that the new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control, and stressed the need to create conditions to realize the transformation from “double control” of energy consumption to “double control” of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible. This week we combed and interpreted this new policy.
Core view
Promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy
The meeting pointed out that we should promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy based on the basic national conditions of coal. At present, China is in the throes of energy transformation, and thermal power is still an important support. In the first half of this year, the proportion of thermal power generation is as high as 73%, and the contribution of photovoltaic wind power is only about 12.9%. This year, the sharp rise in coal prices caused by coal shortage has suppressed the willingness of coal power enterprises to generate electricity, and the power supply in many places is tight. In addition, thermal power transformation can improve the flexibility of power system, and coal is still the stabilizer and ballast of China’s energy security.
Raw energy consumption is not included in the total energy consumption, and the demand for green electricity consumption is expected to increase
On September 16, the plan for improving the dual control of energy consumption intensity and total amount issued by the national development and Reform Commission proposed that for areas that exceed the incentive renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight, the consumption exceeding the minimum renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight will not be included in the assessment of the current total energy consumption in the annual and five-year plans of the region. The meeting once again stressed that new renewable energy will not be included in the total energy consumption control, which will significantly improve the willingness of all localities, especially in areas with tight dual control of energy consumption, to build renewable energy. In 2019, the energy consumption of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries accounted for about 6.7% of the total national energy consumption. The meeting proposed that the energy consumption of raw materials would not be included in the total energy consumption control, and this part of the total energy consumption would be liberalized. For high energy consuming industries, if the electricity used in the production process is renewable energy, it also belongs to the category of new renewable energy and will not be included in the total energy consumption control, which is expected to further improve the enterprise’s green power consumption demand, increase the green power transaction scale and frequency, and push up the green power premium. Promote the “dual control” of energy consumption to the “dual control” of total carbon emission and intensity
Since neither renewable energy nor raw material energy will produce carbon emissions, the proposal of “new renewable energy and raw material energy will not be included in the total energy consumption control” paves the way for the adjustment of the dual control mechanism from energy consumption control to carbon emission intensity and total amount control, The purpose is to remove the projects that do not produce carbon emissions or a small amount of carbon emissions from the total energy consumption control before the introduction of carbon emission dual control. With low-carbon clean energy gradually becoming the main energy, the total energy control system not only limits the use of fossil energy, but also limits the development of renewable energy. The essence of total carbon emission control is total fossil energy consumption control. The implementation of total carbon emission control can effectively avoid the limitations of total energy control system and encourage the development of renewable energy while controlling fossil energy consumption.
Investment suggestion: the central economic work conference made it clear that the new renewable energy and raw material energy will no longer be included in the total energy consumption control, which will significantly improve the willingness of all localities, especially in areas with tight dual control of energy consumption, increase the demand for green power, increase the transaction scale and frequency of green power, and push up the green power premium, New energy operators are expected to benefit fully. At the same time, the meeting proposed to create conditions to realize the transformation from “dual control” of energy consumption to “dual control” of total carbon emission and intensity, which is a major breakthrough since the implementation of the dual control system of energy consumption and will further promote the development of renewable energy. It is suggested to pay attention to [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) (a + H)] [China Resources Power] [ Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) (a + H)]; new energy operators should pay attention to [Longyuan Power] [ Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) ] [ China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ] [ Jilin Electric Power Co.Ltd(000875) ] [ Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) ], etc.; hydropower should pay attention to [ Sichuan Chuantou Energy Co.Ltd(600674) ] [ Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc(600025) ] [ Sdic Power Holdings Co.Ltd(600886) ] [ China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) ].
Risk tips: new energy consumption is less than expected, policy implementation is less than expected, electricity price reduction risk, intensified industry competition, etc
