event
On December 9, the central bank released the social financing and financial data for November. At the end of November, the stock of social finance was 311.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, the growth rate increased by 0.1pct month on month, and social finance realized bottom recovery. In November, the increment of social finance was 2.61 trillion yuan, an increase of 478.6 billion yuan year-on-year, especially corporate bonds and government bonds. M1 increased by 3% year-on-year, up 0.2pct month on month, down 7pct year-on-year; M2 increased by 8.5% year-on-year, down 0.2pct and 2.2pct respectively month on month and year-on-year.
comment
The growth rate of social finance stabilized and rebounded, bond financing pulled significantly, and loans were still weak as a whole. In November, the incremental structure of social finance showed a trend of weakening on balance sheet financing and strengthening bond financing: the new RMB loans based on social finance were 1.30 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 228.8 billion yuan, and the new RMB loans based on financial institutions were 1.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 160 billion yuan. The overall reflection credit is still weak. The net financing of corporate bonds was 410.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 326.4 billion yuan; The net financing of government bonds was 815.8 billion yuan, an increase of 415.8 billion yuan year-on-year; Stock financing was 129.4 billion yuan, an increase of 52.3 billion yuan year-on-year. The three non-standard items decreased by 253.8 billion yuan in a single month, an increase of 49.5 billion yuan year-on-year, of which trust loans decreased by 80.3 billion yuan year-on-year, and non-standard items maintained a stable downward trend. In November, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8.5% (the average value predicted by wind was 8.69%), down 0.2pct month on month; the growth scissors difference of m2-m1 was 5.5pct, down 0.4pct month on month. The convergence of scissors difference reflects the improvement of enterprise capital.
Residents' medium and long-term loans have recovered, the correction effect of the housing market has been achieved, and enterprise credit still needs to turn around. In November, the new bill financing was 160.5 billion yuan, an increase of 80.1 billion yuan year-on-year. Although the growth rate decreased month on month, the bill impulse trend has not changed. It can be seen that the credit inflection point is still brewing. In the residential sector, the newly increased short-term loans amounted to 151.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 96.9 billion yuan. The repeated epidemic has led to the cautious consumption of residents; The new medium and long-term loans to residents were 582.1 billion yuan, an increase of 77.2 billion yuan year-on-year, the highest growth rate since April this year, mainly due to the loose margin of mortgage loans. For enterprises and institutions, new loans amounted to 567.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 213.3 billion yuan, the first decrease since June this year, of which short-term, medium and long-term loans increased by 32.4 billion yuan and 247 billion yuan respectively year-on-year, and the demand for corporate loans was relatively weak.
The tone of "stability" continues, and banks are expected to benefit from "volume increase and price decrease". At present, the policy tone of maintaining stability and seeking progress while maintaining stability remains unchanged, carbon emission reduction tools have been issued and comprehensive RRR reduction has been implemented, the debt cost of commercial banks has been effectively reduced, and the total amount of credit is beginning to see the dawn. The central economic work conference held from December 8 to 10 proposed to continue to implement the active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, promote the "increment, expansion and price reduction" of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, start a number of industrial infrastructure reconstruction projects, and the credit structure is about to increase. In addition, with the strict control and "correction" of the housing market, the phenomenon of reduced risk appetite of commercial banks for real estate enterprises is expected to improve, and the loan force of the enterprise sector can be expected. In addition, since the fourth quarter, listed commercial banks have frequently supplemented capital to store enough "ammunition", and the credit supply capacity will continue to improve.
Investment advice
Social finance has achieved bottom recovery, bond financing provides strong support, superimposes standard reduction and carbon emission reduction tools, and the policy combination will increase the expectation of credit volume recovery. The banking sector is in the triple good of valuation bottom + asset quality improvement + wide credit policy. Banks with advantages such as small and micro loans and green credit are expected to break through the siege; Banks that cross the cycle with light businesses such as wealth management and comprehensive finance will be full of vitality. Therefore, we suggest high-quality joint-stock banks that pay attention to the steady and balanced development of retail business, small and micro loans, risk management and capital supplement, as well as characteristic urban commercial banks that deeply cultivate the regional economy.
Risk statement
Covid-19 epidemic situation is repeated; The economic growth rate was lower than expected; The implementation of the policy is less than expected.
