Industry core view
Last week, the CS basic chemical index rose 0.11%, the CSI 300 index rose 3.14% in the same period, and the basic chemical index lagged behind the market by 3.03 percentage points in the same period. Cs Petroleum and petrochemical index rose 0.94%, 2.20 percentage points behind the market in the same period. Among them, Zhejiang Oceanking Development Co.Ltd(603213) (40.27%), Shenzhen Wote Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(002886) (21.82%), Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) (15.60%), Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) (15.28%) and Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) (14.38%) ranked among the top five; the companies with the top five declines were: Shandong Fengyuan Chemical Co.Ltd(002805) (- 17.29%), Anhui Huaheng Biotechnology Co.Ltd(688639) (- 14.76%), HuaSu shares (- 13.24%), Xilong Scientific Co.Ltd(002584) (- 11.80%) and Yangmei Chemical Co.Ltd(600691) (- 11.17%).
Key investment points:
PVDF: last week, the market price of PVDF battery in China rose again. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, as of December 10, the market price of PVDF battery in China was 445000 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week increase of 7.23%. On the demand side, the shortage of chips in the early stage of the automotive industry tends to be alleviated, the policy side countries continue to maintain their support for new energy vehicles, and there is a strong demand for power batteries in new energy vehicles, On the demand side, it strongly supports the rise of PVDF battery level price; On the cost side, the market of raw refrigerant R142b remained strong last week; On the supply side, China’s total PVDF production capacity is limited, and manufacturers are still in a tight state of full production, full sales and reluctant sales. According to the comprehensive analysis, PVDF is still in short supply and the market is still strong. It is suggested that investors should pay attention to the dynamics of enterprises related to the layout of PVDF and its raw material capacity.
Refrigerant: last week, except R142b, the overall market price of refrigerant in China continued to decline. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, as of December 10, the average price of R22 was 17500 yuan / ton, down 7.89% on a weekly basis; The average price of R32 is 16500 yuan / ton, and the price is temporarily stable; The average price of R125 was 35500 yuan / ton, down 6.58% on a weekly basis; The average price of refrigerant R134a was 29000 yuan / ton, down 13.43% on a weekly basis. The market price of R142b remains at a high level of 185000 yuan. On the cost side, on December 10, the price of trichloroethylene was 8457 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 40.38%. Although the prices of other methane chlorides rebounded, the cost support was weak under the downward expectation of the market. On the demand side, in the short term, due to the panic caused by the spread of Omicron mutant strain, the international shipping was impacted again, the export orders were weak, and the domestic demand was relatively stable. On the supply side, due to the large-scale capacity expansion in the early stage, the inventory rebounded in the state of weak demand, the products were relatively surplus, and the overall supply-demand relationship of refrigerant weakened. Although the refrigerant market has fallen periodically at present, under the constraints of the Kigali amendment, the direction of long-term production and supply tightening in the refrigerant market and the balance between supply and demand is still clear. It is suggested to pay attention to the dynamics of relevant leading enterprises for a long time.
Investment suggestions: we recommend paying attention to three main investment lines: 1 In the context of policy control, production and supply are becoming more stringent, while the demand side is still supportive in various sub sectors, such as pesticides, fertilizers and refrigerants; 2. Rely on new energy, seek industrial transformation and upgrading from upstream materials, lengthen its business cycle and improve its valuation, such as phosphorus chemical industry; 3. High value-added new materials with significant domestic substitution trend, such as semiconductor materials and display materials, which are mainly planned during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Risk factors: the variation of covid-19 strain intensifies the risk of market panic, the risk of obstruction of international shipping logistics, the serious overseas epidemic, the continuous fluctuation of international crude oil prices, the decline of chemical prices, the risk of foreign trade orders falling short of expectations, the refrigerant demand falling short of expectations, and the environmental protection policy further limits the commencement risk of fluorine chemical enterprises.
