Ping An View:
Hydrogen energy is an important alternative to fossil energy to achieve carbon neutralization. Hydrogen energy has become an important energy for coping with climate change and building a decarbonized society. Developed countries such as Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea have formulated hydrogen energy roadmap to accelerate the technology research and development and industrialization layout of hydrogen energy industry. Hydrogen energy industry has become an important part of China’s energy strategic layout. Hydrogen energy can boost the process of energy transformation in the three roles of “secondary energy, energy carrier and low-carbon raw materials”. In 2050, the whole society’s demand for green hydrogen may be close to 100 million tons.
China’s hydrogen production is mainly in Northwest and North China, mainly from fossil energy. In terms of regional distribution, hydrogen energy production is mainly in Northwest and North China. According to the production sources, it can be divided into “grey hydrogen”, “blue hydrogen” and “green hydrogen”. At present, China’s hydrogen mainly comes from gray hydrogen. Hydrogen production from industrial by-product gas has significant advantages in technical, economic and environmental aspects. In the future, the production of green hydrogen from electrolytic water supporting large-scale photovoltaic power generation or wind power generation will become a development trend.
By product hydrogen is an ideal hydrogen source in the near future. China’s chlor alkali, coking and chemical industries have a large number of industrial by-product hydrogen resources, which are enough to meet the incremental demand for hydrogen in the near and medium term. Relatively speaking, the hydrogen concentration obtained by propane dehydrogenation and ethane cracking is high. By 2022, the by-product hydrogen of propane dehydrogenation and ethane cracking project can provide about 360000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles every year. The industrial by-product hydrogen can almost cover Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong, which can match the hydrogen energy demonstration area and provide relatively low-cost hydrogen energy.
Green hydrogen will gradually come to the front. Hydrogen production from electrolytic water has the characteristics of green environmental protection, flexible production, high purity and by-product high-value oxygen, but its unit energy consumption is about 4-5 kwh / m3 hydrogen, and the electricity price accounts for more than 70% of the total cost. If the existing power is used for production, the cost of hydrogen production is about 30-40 yuan / kg. It is generally believed that when the electricity price is lower than 0.3 yuan / kW, it has good economy. At present, the hydrogen production technology from electrolyzed water mainly includes alkaline hydrolysis cell (AE), proton exchange membrane water electrolysis cell (PEM) and solid oxide water electrolysis cell (SOE). Among them, alkaline electrolysis cell technology is the most mature and the production cost is low.
Hydrogen energy industry has become an important part of China’s energy strategic layout. China has become the world’s largest hydrogen producer, However, at present, hydrogen mainly comes from gray hydrogen (fossil fuel), but the by-product hydrogen in the chemical process has low cost and large output, and matches with the hydrogen energy demonstration city. It is the most realistic hydrogen source in the short term. With the promotion of the carbon market, the demand for green hydrogen gradually increases, and the production of green hydrogen from electrolytic water supporting large-scale photovoltaic power generation or wind power generation will become a trend in the future. With the gradual application of hydrogen energy industry in automobile and industry, the utilization of hydrogen energy will increase gradually It is suggested to pay attention to Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) . The development of green hydrogen industry will promote the demand for electrolytic cells and new energy equipment, and new energy operators will also benefit. It is recommended to Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) and China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) .
Risk tips: 1) the implementation of carbon neutralization policy is not as expected; 2) The price of hydrogen energy is difficult to drop significantly; 3) The cost of fuel cell decreased less than expected; 4) The development of industrial applications such as hydrogen energy metallurgy is less than expected.
