Event overview:
The central economic work conference proposed the "full implementation of the stock issuance registration system". Although the topic of the full registration system is not put forward for the first time, the central economic work conference made this statement in the economic work arrangement for next year, which means that this will be a key task of the capital market in 2022.
The comprehensive registration system is expected to be supported, and it in the capital market welcomes the beta opportunity
Previously, the registration system of 2019 science and innovation board, the registration system of 2020 gem, the merger of Shenzhen main board and small and medium-sized board + the registration system of Beijing stock exchange in 2021 have been implemented. A series of foreshadowing and pilot projects have laid a solid foundation for the comprehensive registration system. The transformation and investment of IT infrastructure are accompanied by system reform, with strong incremental certainty. Reform of the registration system before benchmarking, Consider the capacity and complexity of the motherboard (there are 190 million main board investors' accounts, 22 times that of the science and innovation board and 4 times that of the GEM). It is expected that the incremental space driven by transformation will be greater. More importantly, major institutional innovation will not only directly lead to the transformation and optimization of system modules, but also greatly stimulate the enthusiasm of market trading, drive the performance of financial institutions to improve and transmit the outlook to the upstream. We are optimistic about the leader of B end [ Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) ] Direct benefit transformation increment; On the other hand, it also catalyzes the trading activity of the capital market. The C-end leader [ Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) ] benefits from the trading activity of the capital market, has clear trading volume logic, and deeply benefits the industry beta.
Multi factor resonance, Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) plays the strongest traffic beta in the market
In August 2020, the new deal of the three-party platform for securities trading was released, forming an industrial watershed, Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) - logic enhancement of flow beta amplifier. There are three core impacts:
1. Diversion share business is included in the compliance scope, and Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) "retail brokerage" license is granted in a disguised form.
2. The share ratio is limited to 30%, but the expansion of investors + structural optimization bring new opportunities, and the income elasticity can be expected.
3. The flow lays the cornerstone, 30 million monthly activity is significantly ahead of the industry, and will become the first choice for securities companies.
It is worth noting that with the company's continuous overweight R & D and high-frequency iteration in recent years, it has brought better user experience, and the monthly number of APP activities has reached a new high. According to the data of Analysys Qianfan, as of April 2021, the monthly number of Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) apps of the company has reached 30.85 million, significantly ahead of East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) (14.62 million) Shanghai Dzh Limited(601519) (8.62 million). In other words, under the 30% sharing rule, the company is equivalent to obtaining 10 million brokerage users in disguise. Once the high-level market comes, the traffic beta is highly elastic.
Focus on fundamentals: the forward-looking indicators are better, and the expected difference leads to undervaluation
According to the third quarterly report, the company's revenue in the third quarter was 860 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 410 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.2%, which reduced the overall growth rate in the first three quarters to a certain extent. The market pessimistic expectation has been fully reflected in the stock price, but in fact, excluding the disturbance of Q3 trading activity, there are two expectations:
1. Most cooperative operations are settled in Q4, and the impact of Q3 data is limited:
2. The price rise of competitive products highlights the cost performance of Ifind, and 2b terminal is expected to be in large volume:
Combined with the optimistic change trend of focusing on advance collection & cash flow, and based on the active market trading since the beginning of 2021, it is judged that Q4 advance collection and cash flow indicators should be tracked, and the valuation reversal trend driven by fundamental logic verification should be optimistic. The beta market may greatly strengthen the reversal elasticity of the company.
Investment suggestion: To sum up, the comprehensive registration system is firmly optimistic that Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) will become a beta market amplifier under the advantages of the new tripartite regulations. In addition, Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) , East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) , Fujian Apex Software Co.Ltd(603383) and so on benefit from the beta market simultaneously.
Keep Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) profit forecast unchanged: it is estimated that the revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 3.95/5.24/6.79 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 38.9% / 32.7% / 29.5% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company in the three years was RMB 2.43/33.3/4.46 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 41.0% / 36.8% / 34.2% respectively; EPS is 4.5 / 6.2 / 8.3 yuan respectively; On December 13, 2021, the share price was 132.1 yuan, corresponding to 29 / 21 / 16 times of PE respectively. Considering the fundamental expectation difference and oversold valuation, the "buy" rating was maintained.
Risk tips: financial innovation policy risk and innovation business progress risk.
