Key investment points:
Photovoltaic: high demand at home and abroad, optimistic about the opportunity of profit reversal of battery chips next year. The installed capacity in emerging markets surged. The global installed capacity is expected to reach 400gw in 2025, and China’s “14th five year plan” has an average annual capacity of 100gw. This year, the silicon material supply is tight, limiting the growth of installed capacity. The silicon material supply is expected to exceed 800000 tons in 2022, which can support nearly 300gw of installed capacity and alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand. We believe that silicon materials are gradually getting rid of the cycle constraints, with high demand, outstanding growth in the future, and leading enterprises will greatly increase their market share by virtue of cost advantages. This year, silicon wafer production capacity expanded more, and the leading operating rate fell sharply under the limitation of silicon material. The cost gap among enterprises has narrowed. It is expected that there will be a large downward space for silicon wafer prices next year, but leading enterprises still have cost advantages and pay attention to the differentiation opportunities brought by large size. This year, the profit of the battery is squeezed by the upstream and downstream, but we believe that the upstream price is expected to fall next year, the downstream acceptance of the component and battery price will be improved, and the profitability of the battery will rebound greatly. We focus on the investment opportunities of the battery. Recently, the exemption of 201 tariff by the United States has released the signal of the improvement of China’s export environment next year. China’s component exports are expected to continue to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to integrated enterprises.
Wind power: the cost drops rapidly, and the onshore parity is reached, and the offshore parity can be expected in the future. This year’s large-scale units and technological progress have brought great room for decline in the cost side of the whole machine. The bidding price of wind turbines in China continued to decline to stimulate demand. By the end of Q3, the price of wind turbines had decreased by more than 20%, and the bidding volume in the first three quarters exceeded 47gw, close to the annual level of 19 years. We believe that Chinese machine manufacturers have made rapid technological progress, gradually narrowing the gap with overseas giants, and the onshore wind power parity has been basically realized. However, from the perspective of sea breeze, although the certainty of fan price decline is high, the foundation construction accounts for a large proportion of the cost of sea breeze project, and it is relatively difficult to reduce the cost. We believe that the substantial cost reduction of offshore wind power in the future still comes from technological upgrading. We are optimistic about the long-term application potential of floating fans in the far-reaching sea. Next year, we suggest to focus on parts enterprises with incremental performance and high performance elasticity and leading machine manufacturers.
New energy vehicles: opportunities for upstream materials are obvious, and the top-level design of hydrogen energy is accelerated. Next year, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles are expected to reach 5 million. With the release of demand for energy storage, the industry will still maintain high growth. This year, the cost pressure of the industrial chain increased sharply, driven by the superposition of low-end models, and the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries continued to increase. In terms of negative electrode, the proportion of artificial graphite has gradually increased. Due to high energy consumption, the production capacity of graphitization will be implemented or gradually tightened. Next year, the supply and demand will be in a tight balance, and the leading enterprises with a high proportion of self supply are expected to benefit. According to GGII data, the proportion of wet diaphragm in 2021h1 further increased to 72%. Supply and demand will remain tight in 2022, and the leading profitability is expected to improve. It is expected that the tight supply and demand of electrolyte will continue to Q3 next year. With 33000 tons of hexafluoride put into operation in the second half of the year, the supply will improve at the end of the year. The first list of hydrogen fuel cell demonstration urban agglomeration has been implemented, which will directly promote the development of fuel cell core parts and hydrogen energy supply enterprises in the region. In addition, driven by events such as the Winter Olympics, 2022 will be a year of large-scale development of hydrogen energy and fuel cells. We are optimistic about the development of fuel cell stack plate and industrial by-product hydrogen production next year.
Risk factors: the price decline of photovoltaic industry chain is less than expected, resulting in less than expected installed capacity; The wind power bidding volume is less than expected; The decline of fan price leads to the decline of industrial chain profitability; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, the promotion of hydrogen energy policy is lower than expected, and the risk of technological change
